OpenAI on pause: IPO postponed due to SpaceX's turbulent start — a lesson for AI giants
OpenAI's management has adopted a wait-and-see approach regarding the timeline for its initial public offering (IPO). The reason is not just internal disagreements, but a clear and very painful example from the SpaceX IPO, which, after a spectacular takeoff, rapidly plummeted. This event has become a powerful warning for the entire sector of high-tech giants.
The SpaceX Case: From Euphoria to Sobering Reality
SpaceX shares (ticker SPCX) hit the market on June 11 at a price of $135 per share as part of a massive $75 billion offering. The first day of trading saw a rise to $150, and by June 17, the price had soared above $225, temporarily pushing the company's market capitalization past the $2 trillion mark. However, the rally was short-lived. By June 26, quotes had retreated to $152.86, almost completely erasing all initial gains. This was followed by days of double-digit percentage declines, which, according to insiders, directly influenced the mood of OpenAI's board of directors.
Such volatility — a rapid surge followed by a 25-30% collapse — demonstrates the extreme instability of the market for "mega-offerings." Investors, burned by SpaceX, are now looking at other high-profile names with doubled caution.
OpenAI's Strategy: Caution Above All
OpenAI filed a confidential application with the SEC on June 8, but immediately made it clear: specific dates for the public offering have not yet been determined. The company openly states that it is in no hurry, as a number of strategic tasks are easier to solve while remaining a private entity. CFO Sarah Friar, according to available information, insists on postponing the IPO until 2027. The argument is substantial: colossal expenses on computing infrastructure, the need for massive investments in development, and the complexities of public reporting, which could reveal a less-than-rosy picture of current profitability.
Notably, the position of CEO Sam Altman differs from that of the CFO — he advocates for a faster entry onto the stock exchange. However, the lesson from SpaceX seems to be tipping the scales in favor of caution.
Why This Is Critically Important for the Market
Even the most high-profile offerings today face a harsh assessment of profitability and risks after the lock-up period ends. OpenAI's private valuation has reached $850 billion. The public market, with its relentless transparency, does not forgive mistakes and does not tolerate inflated expectations without a solid financial foundation. The window of opportunity for OpenAI to go public is still open, but the situation remains extremely uncertain.
My comment: The story with SpaceX is not just an isolated case, but a systemic signal. The market has stopped blindly believing in big names. For OpenAI, whose business model requires enormous capital expenditures and has yet to demonstrate sustainable operating profit, a hasty entry into the public market could turn into a disaster. The delay until 2027 is not a sign of weakness, but perhaps the most reasonable strategic move, allowing the company to approach the IPO with a more mature and stable business.