The OpenAI IPO is in question: SpaceX's lessons prompt the board of directors to reconsider plans
OpenAI's leadership is exercising extreme caution regarding the timing of its stock market debut. SpaceX's high-profile but highly volatile IPO served as a sobering signal for the board of directors, prompting them to reassess the risks associated with major offerings in the high-tech sector.
Traders on the decentralized platform Polymarket are already estimating the probability that OpenAI will not conduct an IPO before the end of 2026 at 30-40%. This forecast reflects growing market skepticism and the company's clear reluctance to rush a public listing.
SpaceX: From Euphoria to Disappointment in Two Weeks
SpaceX's share placement at $135 per share as part of a massive $75 billion IPO on June 11, 2026, initially appeared triumphant. On the first day of trading under the ticker SPCX, shares soared to $150, and by June 17, they reached above $225, temporarily pushing the company's market capitalization above $2 trillion.
However, the market euphoria was short-lived. SpaceX shares practically lost all their initial gains and sharply declined. As of June 26, SPCX is trading around $152.86 — nearly unchanged from the offering price after a series of days with double-digit percentage drops.
It is this volatility — a rapid surge followed by a 25-30% pullback — that, according to insiders, is now directly influencing the decisions of OpenAI's board of directors.
OpenAI Leaning Toward Delaying the Offering
OpenAI filed a confidential application with the SEC on June 8 but immediately indicated that the timeline for the public offering has not yet been determined.
"We are not in a hurry because there are tasks that are easier to solve while remaining a private company," OpenAI stated.
OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar, according to informed sources, suggests waiting until 2027. The main reasons: enormous expenses, the need for massive investments in computing infrastructure, and the complexities associated with public reporting for a company that spends billions.
Notably, CEO Sam Altman's opinion diverges from his colleagues — he insists on a faster market entry, seeing it as an opportunity to raise capital for further growth.
Why This Matters for Investors
The SpaceX case clearly demonstrates: even the most high-profile offerings are now facing a harsh assessment of profitability and risks after the lock-up period ends. OpenAI's latest private valuation reached $850 billion — at such a level of expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes.
My analysis: OpenAI's caution is an absolutely justified step. The market is in a phase of revaluing "growth stories" in favor of real cash flows. For a company that spends billions on training models, a premature stock market debut could turn into a disaster. SpaceX showed that even the "king of the hill" status does not protect against a brutal sell-off. The window for OpenAI's IPO is still open, but the situation remains extremely uncertain, and I would advise investors not to count on an IPO before 2027.