OpenAI IPO in Question: SpaceX Volatility Forces Board to Reconsider Timeline
The board of directors of OpenAI appears to have paused planning for a public stock offering. The reason is not merely bureaucratic delays, but a very specific and telling case: SpaceX, whose IPO turned into a classic miniature "pump and dump." The market is beginning to understand that even the biggest names in the tech sector are not immune to a brutal correction after going public.
On the Polymarket platform, traders are pricing in a 30-40% probability that OpenAI will not conduct an IPO before the end of 2026. This is a serious signal of skepticism, indicating that investors no longer believe in the company's imminent entry into the public market without regard for market conditions.
The SpaceX Lesson: From Euphoria to Reality in Two Weeks
SpaceX placed shares at $135 each as part of a massive $75 billion IPO on June 11. On the first day of trading (ticker SPCX), the stock started at $150, and by June 17, the price had soared above $225, temporarily pushing the company's market capitalization past the $2 trillion mark.
However, the market quickly sobered up. By June 26, SPCX was trading around $152.86 — virtually unchanged from the placement price after a series of double-digit daily declines. This volatility — first a rapid 67% surge, then a 25-30% pullback — is now, according to insiders, directly influencing the decisions of OpenAI's board of directors.
OpenAI Leaning Toward a Delay: 2027 as the New Target?
OpenAI filed a confidential registration with the SEC on June 8, but immediately stated that the timeline for the public offering has not yet been determined.
"We are not in a hurry because there are tasks that are easier to solve while remaining a private company," OpenAI stated.
OpenAI's Chief Financial Officer, Sarah Friar, according to informed sources, is proposing to wait until 2027. The rationale: massive expenses on computing infrastructure, the need to invest in development, and the complexities of public reporting, which would require disclosing sensitive data.
The opinion of CEO Sam Altman differs from his colleagues — he insists on a faster market entry, fearing missing the window and losing investor interest.
Why This Matters for Investors
Even the most high-profile offerings now have to contend with a harsh assessment of profitability and risks after the lock-up period ends. OpenAI's last private valuation reached $850 billion — at that level of expectations, the public market does not forgive mistakes.
The window for OpenAI to go public is still open, but the situation remains uncertain. The SpaceX case clearly demonstrates: even if an IPO is successful, the first weeks of trading can wipe out all the premium of early investors. For OpenAI, whose valuation is already controversial, this is a serious warning signal.
My analysis: The SpaceX story is not just an isolated case, but a systemic signal. The market is saturated, and investors are no longer willing to pay for a "growth story" without regard for fundamental metrics. If OpenAI cannot demonstrate sustainable monetization of its AI products, any IPO risks turning into a repeat of the SpaceX scenario — a rapid rise followed by a painful correction. A delay until 2027 may not be a weakness, but a strategic necessity.