XRP loses its last bastion: weekly RSI enters oversold territory for the first time since 2022
The XRP price continues its painful decline, testing the critical support zone around $1.04. The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has broken below a multi-year ascending trendline and entered oversold territory — a situation not seen since 2022. This is a serious technical signal, indicating bear dominance and extremely weak buyer interest.
At the time of writing this analysis, XRP is trading around the $1.04 mark, approximately 3.7% lower than 24 hours ago and more than 11% down from last week's levels. The technical picture and on-chain metrics paint a clear bearish scenario.
Whales Exit, Retail Stays Silent
Analysis of on-chain data from Santiment shows a worrying dynamic. The number of large transactions exceeding $100,000 has sharply declined and remains near the lower boundary of its range — around 90 transactions. For comparison, the peak in February 2025 reached 898. This is direct evidence of reduced activity and confidence among institutional players and large holders.
Recent reports confirm: leading whales are not rushing to buy the dip; on the contrary, they are systematically reducing their positions. XRP's social dominance has also fallen to 0.259%, significantly lower than the activity spikes seen in late March and mid-May. Notably, previous discussion spikes coincided with price dips and quickly faded, indicating weak interest from retail traders.
Both metrics — large transactions and social activity — are declining in sync with the price. This dynamic is characteristic of a capitulation and coin redistribution phase. Under current conditions, a quick market recovery is unlikely. Large holders began reducing their holdings as early as late May, and this process continues.
Technical Analysis: Breakdown and Target at $0.73
On the weekly chart, XRP is trading below a descending resistance line drawn from the all-time high of $3.66. The price has failed to overcome this barrier four times already. Since July 2025, the asset has lost over 50% of its value, moving in descending steps.
The chart structure shows a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The price has broken down from a symmetrical triangle, which technically indicates potential for a decline towards the $0.73 mark. XRP is losing its last major support around the 0.786 Fibonacci level near $1.17. Volumes on the weekly chart continue to shrink — this suggests weak buyer activity.
Below $1.17, there are no significant support levels on the chart until the $0.73 target. If the week closes below this mark, the downside breakout will be confirmed.
The weekly RSI confirms market weakness. The indicator held above an ascending support line since 2022, testing it in July 2024 and again in late 2025. In early 2026, the support line was broken. In May, the RSI tested it from below, encountered resistance, and slid into oversold territory, approaching 28 points. Values below 30 were last recorded back in 2022. The indicator unequivocally points to seller advantage.
Outlook and Key Levels
The entire picture still leans towards a bearish scenario in the coming weeks. This balance of forces leaves XRP under pressure for at least several months ahead.
Deep oversold conditions may be accompanied by short-term upward retracements. However, the broken trendline and declining demand point to a continuation of the downward movement. A weekly close above $1.17, along with the RSI returning above the broken trendline, would weaken the downside potential. Until this happens, the nearest target remains the $0.73 zone.
At present, XRP is balancing on its last support. The next weekly close will largely determine the future direction of movement.
Expert Opinion: The weekly RSI in oversold territory is a rare and strong signal, but under the current bearish trend and lack of whale interest, it is more an indicator of weakness than a reversal. For a change in sentiment, the market would need consolidation above $1.17 and a return of volumes. For now, we are only seeing capitulation.