XRP loses its last bastion: key support breakdown and bear market signals
The XRP market is experiencing a critical moment. The asset's price has quietly but steadily broken through the last significant support level around $1.04, and the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) is entering oversold territory. We have not observed such a scenario since 2022.
At the time of analysis, XRP is trading around $1.04, which is 3.7% lower than 24 hours ago and more than 11% below last week's levels. Technical and on-chain indicators paint a unified, alarming picture.
On-Chain Activity Does Not Support XRP
The number of large transactions exceeding $100,000 continues to decline and remains near the lower boundary of its range. According to Santiment data, the metric is stuck around the 90 mark, drastically lower than the February peak of 898. The decrease in large transfer volume is a direct signal of weak confidence among whales. Fresh on-chain reports clearly show that leading holders are reducing their portfolio share rather than buying the dip.
The share of XRP discussions on social media is also falling. The current level stands at 0.259% — significantly lower than the activity spikes seen in late March and mid-May. Notably, previous attention spikes failed to halt the price decline; they merely coincided with drawdowns and quickly faded, indicating weak interest from retail traders.
Both metrics are declining in sync with the asset's price. This dynamic is characteristic of a capitulation and coin redistribution phase. A quick market recovery cannot be expected in this situation. Large holders have been systematically reducing their holdings since late May.
XRP Price and Weekly RSI Head Lower
On the weekly chart, XRP is trading below a descending resistance line drawn from the $3.66 high. The price has failed to break through this barrier four times already. Since July 2025, XRP has lost more than 50% of its value, moving in descending steps.
The chart structure shows a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The price has also broken down from a symmetrical triangle, which technically indicates potential for a decline to $0.73. XRP is losing its last major support around the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level near $1.17. Volumes on the weekly chart continue to shrink — this points to weak buyer activity.
Below $1.17, there are no significant support levels on the chart until the $0.73 target. If the week closes below this mark, a downside breakout will be confirmed.
The weekly RSI confirms market weakness. The indicator had held above an upward support line since 2022: it tested this line in July 2024 and again in late 2025. In early 2026, the support line was broken. In May, the RSI tested it from below, encountered resistance, and slid into oversold territory, approaching 28 points. Values below 30 were last recorded in 2022. The indicator now clearly shows sellers' dominance.
Bearish Sentiment for XRP Will Persist Unless Price Recovers Above $1.17
The overall picture still favors a bearish scenario in the coming weeks. This balance of power leaves XRP under pressure for at least several months ahead.
Deep oversold conditions may be accompanied by short-term upward bounces. However, the broken trend line and declining demand point to a continuation of the downward movement.
A week above $1.17, along with the RSI returning above the broken trend line, would weaken the downside potential. Until this happens, the nearest target remains the $0.73 zone.
At present, XRP is balancing on its last support. The next weekly close will largely determine the future direction of movement.
Expert Opinion: The situation with XRP resembles a classic bearish trend with no catalysts for a reversal. Until we see either a return above $1.17 confirmed by volume, or a new fundamental driver, any upward movement should be viewed merely as a correction within the descending channel. Investors should exercise extreme caution.