XRP loses its last support: weekly RSI in oversold zone — not seen since 2022
The price of XRP continues to show a worrying trend, dropping towards the critical level of $1.04 — the last significant support before a potentially deep decline. Over the past 24 hours, the asset has lost about 3.7%, and over the week, the decline has exceeded 11%. But a much more telling signal is the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has entered oversold territory. The last time a similar situation was recorded was in 2022, indicating extreme buyer weakness.
On-chain metrics offer no reason for optimism
Analysis of on-chain data confirms the bearish forecast. The number of large transactions exceeding $100,000 has sharply declined. According to Santiment data, this indicator is hovering around the 90 mark, drastically lower than the February peak of 898. This decrease in activity from large holders — "whales" — suggests a lack of confidence in a quick recovery.
Moreover, leading whales are not rushing to buy the dip. On the contrary, they are gradually reducing the share of XRP in their portfolios. This trend has been observed since the end of May and has only intensified in early June.
The share of XRP discussions on social media is also at a low level — around 0.259%. The spikes in attention seen in late March and mid-May failed to stop the price decline and quickly faded. This indicates weak interest from retail traders, who typically fuel local rallies.
The combined decline in price, whale activity, and social interest forms a classic picture of a capitulation and coin redistribution phase. In such a situation, a quick reversal is unlikely.
Technical analysis: breakout of key levels
On the weekly chart, XRP looks particularly vulnerable. The price has failed to break above the descending resistance line drawn from the all-time high of $3.66 four times. Since July 2025, the asset has lost more than 50% of its value, moving in descending steps.
The formation of successive lower highs and lower lows confirms a sustained bearish trend. The recent downside breakout from a symmetrical triangle technically opened the path to a target around $0.73. XRP has also lost key support at the 0.786 Fibonacci level near $1.17. Trading volumes on the weekly chart continue to shrink, indicating a lack of aggressive demand.
Below the $1.17 mark, there are no significant support levels on the chart until $0.73. If the week closes below current values, it will confirm the breakout and intensify selling pressure.
The weekly RSI has finally confirmed market weakness. The indicator broke the ascending support line that had held it since 2022 and is now approaching the 28-point mark. Values below 30 represent deep oversold territory, last seen in 2022. The RSI now points to a clear advantage for sellers.
Forecast: bearish scenario persists
The entire set of factors — technical and on-chain metrics — leans towards a continuation of the bearish trend in the coming weeks. Deep oversold conditions could trigger short-term bounces, but the broken trend line and declining demand point to a sustained downward movement.
The only scenario that could ease the pressure is a weekly close above $1.17 combined with the RSI returning above the broken trend line. Until this happens, the nearest target remains the $0.73 zone.
The current week will be critical. XRP is balancing on its last support, and the weekly close will determine the further direction of movement.
Cryptalist's comment: The situation around XRP reminds me of a classic "bear flag" before the final phase of capitulation. A break below $1.04 without significant buying volume will trigger an accelerated decline to $0.73. Buying the dip now is a high-risk game until whales start actively accumulating positions. We await confirmation from the weekly close.