XRP loses its last bastion: breakout below $1.17 and bearish RSI paint a grim picture
The XRP market is at a critical juncture. The asset's price has quietly but decisively broken through the key support level around $1.17 and is now trading near the $1.04 mark. This is 3.7% lower than a day ago and more than 11% down from last week's levels. However, the most alarming aspect is not just the price, but the state of fundamental and on-chain indicators, which paint a unified, extremely bearish picture.
Whales abandon ship, retail stays silent
Analysis of large transactions (over $100,000) reveals a troubling stagnation. The metric hovers near the 90 mark, which is several times lower than February's peak of 898. This is a direct sign of waning confidence among large holders. Whales are not just refraining from buying the dip—they are systematically reducing their positions, as confirmed by recent reports. This behavior of "smart money" is a classic precursor to further decline.
Social activity around XRP is also at lows. The share of discussions on social networks has dropped to 0.259%, significantly below the spikes seen in late March and mid-May. Notably, previous surges in interest coincided with price dips and quickly faded, indicating a lack of sustained retail demand. When both key drivers—whales and retail—simultaneously retreat into the shadows, the market enters a phase of capitulation and redistribution.
Technical picture: breakdown and oversold conditions
On the weekly chart, XRP is trading below a descending resistance line originating from the all-time high of $3.66. Since July 2025, the asset has lost over 50% of its value, consistently forming lower highs and lower lows. The breakdown of the symmetrical triangle confirmed the bearish scenario, opening the path toward the $0.73 target.
The key level of $1.17, which also served as the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, has been breached. Volumes on the weekly timeframe continue to shrink, indicating buyer weakness. Below $1.17, there are no significant supports on the chart until $0.73.
The weekly RSI (Relative Strength Index) confirms seller dominance. The indicator has broken its ascending support line, which had held since 2022, and has fallen into oversold territory, approaching the 28 mark. Values below 30 were last recorded in 2022. This is a powerful bearish signal, indicating that the market is fully under seller control.
Forecast and key level
The entire body of data—on-chain metrics, technical analysis, and indicators—points toward a continuation of the bearish trend. Deep oversold conditions may trigger short-term bounces, but the broken trend line and lack of demand suggest that any rally will be used for selling.
The only scenario that could alleviate the pressure is a weekly close above $1.17 combined with the RSI reclaiming its broken trend line. Until this happens, the nearest target remains the $0.73 zone.
My expert opinion: The situation for XRP is critical. Ignoring signals from whales and technical indicators would be a major mistake. The market is not searching for a bottom right now—it is forming one. And this bottom is likely to be much deeper than most expect. The next weekly close will be decisive.