XRP loses its last bastion: a breakdown of key support and a signal for decline
The XRP market is at a critical moment. The asset has quietly but confidently broken through the last major support level, approaching the $1.04 mark. The situation is exacerbated by the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) entering oversold territory — something not seen since 2022. This is direct evidence that the bearish scenario is gaining momentum.
At the time of analysis, XRP is trading around $1.04, which is 3.7% lower than a day ago and more than 11% below last week's levels. Technical and on-chain indicators paint a unified and alarming picture.
On-Chain Activity Does Not Save XRP
The number of large transactions exceeding $100,000 continues to decline and remains near the lower boundary of the range. According to analytics, the indicator is around the 90 mark — this is many times lower than the February peak when the number reached 898. The decline in large transfers reflects weak confidence among institutional players and whales. Recent reports show that leading holders are not buying the dip but, on the contrary, are reducing their portfolio share.
The share of XRP discussions on social media is also declining. The indicator is currently at 0.259% — significantly lower than the activity spikes in late March and mid-May. Notably, these spikes did not help stop the decline. Each time, they coincided with a price drop and quickly faded, indicating weak interest from retail traders.
Both metrics are declining synchronously along with the asset's price. Typically, such dynamics are characteristic of a capitulation and coin redistribution phase. A quick recovery cannot be expected under these conditions. Large holders have been systematically reducing their holdings since late May, and this trend continues.
XRP Price and Weekly RSI Decline
On the weekly chart, XRP is trading below the descending resistance line drawn from the $3.66 high. The price has failed to break through this level four times. Since July 2025, the asset has lost more than 50% of its value, moving in descending steps. The chart structure shows a consistent decline in highs and lows. Additionally, the price has broken down from a symmetrical triangle, which technically indicates a potential drop to $0.73.
XRP is losing its last major support near the 0.786 Fibonacci level around $1.17. Volumes on the weekly chart continue to shrink — this indicates weak buyer activity. Below $1.17, there are no significant support levels on the chart until the $0.73 target. If the week closes below this mark, the downward breakout will be confirmed.
The weekly RSI confirms market weakness. The indicator held above an ascending support line since 2022, tested it in July 2024 and again in late 2025. In early 2026, the support line was broken. In May, the RSI tested it from below, encountered resistance, and slid into oversold territory, approaching 28 points. Values below 30 were last recorded in 2022. The indicator now points to a clear advantage for sellers.
Bearish Sentiment for XRP Will Persist Unless Price Recovers Above $1.17
The entire picture leans toward a bearish scenario in the coming weeks. This balance of power leaves XRP under pressure for at least several months ahead. Deep oversold conditions may be accompanied by short upward pullbacks, but the broken trend line and declining demand indicate a continuation of the downward movement.
A week above $1.17, along with the RSI returning above the broken trend line, would weaken the downside potential. Until this happens, the nearest target remains the $0.73 zone. Currently, XRP is balancing on its last support. The next weekly close will largely determine the further direction of movement.
Expert Opinion: The current situation resembles a classic "capitulation" scenario, where the price breaks through the last support levels amid exhausted buyer interest. Until XRP demonstrates a confident return above $1.17 with volume confirmation, any upward impulse should be considered a correction within the overall downtrend. Investors should exercise maximum caution.