XRP loses its last support: weekly RSI in oversold zone for the first time since 2022
The XRP rate is steadily moving toward the critical mark of $1.04, and this is not just an ordinary decline. The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has plunged into oversold territory — a situation we have not observed since 2022. This is a serious signal for the market that should not be ignored.
At the time of analysis, XRP is trading near $1.04, approximately 3.7% lower than a day ago and more than 11% below last week's levels. Technical and on-chain metrics paint a unified, rather grim picture.
Whales are leaving, retail is silent
The number of large transactions exceeding $100,000 continues to decline. According to on-chain platforms, this indicator is stuck near the 90 mark — a colossal drop compared to the February peak of 898. This dynamic directly indicates a decrease in confidence among institutional players and large holders. Instead of buying the dip, leading whales are systematically reducing their positions.
The share of XRP discussions on social networks has also fallen to 0.259% — significantly lower than the activity spikes we saw in late March and mid-May. Notably, previous spikes in interest failed to stop the price decline, merely accompanying it. This points to extremely weak support from retail traders.
Technical picture: support breakdown and bearish trend
On the weekly chart, XRP is trading below a descending resistance line drawn from the all-time high of $3.66. The price has unsuccessfully attempted to break this level four times. Since July 2025, the asset has lost more than 50% of its value, consistently forming lower highs and lower lows.
The key point is that XRP has lost its last significant support at the Fibonacci 0.786 retracement level around $1.17. Below this mark, there are no substantial levels on the chart until the $0.73 target — which is indicated by the breakdown of the symmetrical triangle. Trading volumes on the weekly timeframe continue to decline, confirming buyer weakness.
The weekly RSI confirms this bearish scenario. The indicator had held above an ascending support line since 2022, testing it in July 2024 and late 2025. In early 2026, this line was broken, and the RSI has now dropped to the 28-point mark. Values below 30 represent oversold territory, last recorded in 2022. This indicates an overwhelming advantage for sellers.
XRP forecast: bearish sentiment to persist
The entire set of factors — the breakdown of key support, whale exits, declining social activity, and oversold RSI — points to continued bearish pressure in the coming weeks and even months. Deep oversold conditions may trigger short-term bounces, but the overall trend remains downward. For a sentiment shift, XRP needs not only to close above the $1.17 level on a weekly basis but also to bring the RSI back above the broken trend line. Until this happens, the nearest target remains the $0.73 zone.
My expert opinion: The current situation resembles a phase of capitulation and redistribution of coins from weak hands to strong ones. However, without the emergence of a new catalyst — whether positive regulatory news or renewed interest from major players — XRP's recovery could be prolonged. The next weekly close will be decisive in determining the medium-term direction of movement.