XRP loses its last bastion: breakout below $1.17 and an RSI signal not seen since 2022
The XRP market is experiencing a critical moment. The asset's price has quietly but steadily broken through the key support zone around $1.04, and the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now entering oversold territory. The last time we saw this was in 2022, which in itself is a powerful bearish signal.
At the time of analysis, XRP is trading around the $1.04 mark. This is 3.7% lower than 24 hours ago and more than 11% down from last week's levels. The technical picture and on-chain data paint a grim portrait for the bulls.
Whales exit, retail stays silent
The activity of large players is a key sentiment indicator. The number of transactions exceeding $100,000 has dropped to critically low levels and is hovering around the 90 mark. For comparison, during the February peak, this figure reached 898. Large holders are not rushing to buy the dip; on the contrary, they are methodically reducing their positions, as confirmed by recent reports.
Social activity surrounding XRP is also showing a decline. The share of discussions about the coin on social networks is currently only 0.259% — significantly lower than the spikes seen in March and May. Notably, previous surges in interest failed to halt the price decline, merely accompanying it. This points to weak interest from retail traders.
The simultaneous decline in price, on-chain activity, and social volume is a classic scenario for a capitulation phase. In such a situation, a quick recovery is unlikely. Large holders have been systematically reducing their holdings since the end of May.
Weekly chart: Technical rout
On the weekly timeframe, XRP is trading below a descending resistance line drawn from the all-time high of $3.66. The price has failed to break this barrier four times already. Since July 2025, the asset has lost over 50% of its value, moving down in descending steps.
The chart shows a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The price has also broken down from a symmetrical triangle, which technically indicates potential for a decline towards the $0.73 target. The key support level at the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement (around $1.17) has been broken. Volumes on the weekly chart continue to shrink, indicating buyer weakness.
Below $1.17, there are no significant support levels on the chart until the $0.73 target. If the week closes below this mark, the downside breakout will be confirmed.
The weekly RSI only confirms the market's weakness. The indicator held above an ascending support line since 2022, testing it in July 2024 and late 2025. At the beginning of 2026, this line was broken. In May, the RSI tested it from below, met resistance, and slid into oversold territory, approaching 28 points. Values below 30 were last recorded in 2022. The indicator unequivocally points to seller dominance.
Forecast: Bearish scenario remains in effect
The entire set of factors leans towards a bearish scenario in the coming weeks. Deep oversold conditions may be accompanied by short upward pullbacks, but the broken trend line and declining demand point to a continuation of the downward movement.
A week closing above the $1.17 level, along with the RSI returning above the broken trend line, would weaken the downside potential. Until that happens, the nearest target remains the $0.73 zone.
XRP is balancing on its last support. The next weekly close will largely determine the future direction of movement.
My opinion: The break below $1.17 and the RSI entering oversold territory is not just a technical signal, but a reflection of a deep structural crisis of confidence in the asset. Until we see a resumption of aggressive buying from whales and a return of social interest, any attempt at a bounce will merely be an opportunity to sell. The key level for invalidating the bearish scenario is a firm close above $1.17 on the weekly chart.