XRP loses its last support: weekly RSI enters oversold territory for the first time since 2022
The XRP market is at a critical juncture. The asset's price has approached the last significant support level around $1.04, and, more alarmingly, the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has broken below an ascending support line that extended into oversold territory. We have not observed such a scenario since 2022.
At the time of analysis, XRP is trading near the $1.04 mark, approximately 3.7% lower than 24 hours ago and more than 11% below last week's levels. The technical picture and on-chain data paint a singular, extremely bearish outlook.
Whales Exit, Retail is Silent: On-Chain Foundation Weakens
The number of large transactions exceeding $100,000 continues to decline, hovering near the lower boundary of its range. According to Santiment data, this metric is stuck around the 90 mark, drastically lower than the February peak of 898. Such a sharp drop in activity among large holders — "whales" — indicates clear uncertainty and, more tellingly, a lack of desire to buy the dip. On the contrary, leading players are systematically reducing their XRP allocation, as clearly seen in recent on-chain reports.
The share of XRP discussions on social media is also showing a steady decline. Currently, this metric stands at 0.259%, significantly lower than the activity spikes recorded in late March and mid-May. Notably, previous surges in attention failed to halt the price decline, merely accompanying it before quickly fading. This points to extremely weak interest from retail traders and a lack of "grassroots" support.
The synchronized decline in price, whale activity, and social dominance is a classic pattern of a capitulation and coin redistribution phase. In such a situation, a quick market recovery is unlikely.
Technical Analysis: Support Break and Bearish Triangle
On the weekly chart, XRP is trading below a descending resistance line drawn from the all-time high of $3.66. The price has failed to overcome this barrier four times, and since July 2025, the asset has lost over 50% of its value, moving in descending steps.
The chart shows a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Furthermore, the price has broken down from a symmetrical triangle, which, according to classical technical analysis, indicates potential for a decline to the $0.73 level.
The key Fib 0.786 support level around $1.17 has been breached. Volumes on the weekly chart continue to shrink, confirming buyer weakness. Below $1.17, there are no significant support levels on the chart until the $0.73 target. If the week closes below the $1.07 mark, the downside breakout will be confirmed, and the path to $0.73 will be virtually open.
The weekly RSI only confirms market weakness. The indicator held above an ascending support line since 2022, testing it in July 2024 and late 2025. In early 2026, this line was broken. In May, the RSI tested it from below, encountered resistance, and slid back into oversold territory, approaching 28 points. Values below 30 were last recorded in 2022. The indicator now unequivocally points to seller dominance.
Bearish Scenario Remains in Play
The entire set of factors — technical and on-chain data — leans in favor of the bearish scenario. XRP is under pressure, and this pressure is likely to persist for at least several months ahead. Deep oversold conditions may be accompanied by short-term bounces, but the broken trend line and declining demand point to a continuation of the downward movement.
The only factor that could mitigate the bearish potential is a weekly close above $1.17 combined with the RSI reclaiming the broken trend line. Until this happens, the nearest and most probable target remains the $0.73 zone.
Analyst's Opinion: XRP is teetering on the edge. The next weekly close will be decisive — it will either confirm a deep bearish trend with a target of $0.73 or offer hope for forming a local bottom. Buying the asset at current levels is purely speculative risk with an unfavorable risk/reward ratio favoring sellers.