Institutions are not loosening their grip: Coinbase Premium remains in the negative for 40 days
Major players continue to pressure the first cryptocurrency. On-chain data analytics shows a persistent bearish signal: the Coinbase Premium index has remained in negative territory for 40 days. The last positive value of this indicator was recorded on May 15, and since then the situation has only worsened.
Coinbase Premium is the difference in Bitcoin price between Binance and Coinbase Advanced. The key nuance is that Coinbase Advanced primarily serves institutional and professional clients, while Binance remains the main hub for retail trading. A persistently lower price on Coinbase Advanced compared to Binance is a clear marker of bearish sentiment among "whales" and funds.
Macroeconomic backdrop works against risk
This dynamic is not coincidental. It perfectly correlates with the current macroeconomic backdrop, which remains extremely unfavorable for risk assets. Fresh data on the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index only added to the pressure. The indicator came in at 4.1% against an expected 4.0%, while core PCE reached 3.4% versus a forecast of 3.3%. These are the highest inflation levels since April 2023.
Rising inflation, partly fueled by geopolitical tensions, directly reduces the likelihood of an imminent easing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Additionally, U.S. GDP data came in significantly stronger than forecasts, at 2.1%. A strong economy combined with high inflation deprives the regulator of arguments for cutting rates. Moreover, the possibility of further tightening has once again loomed on the horizon.
Sales show no signs of abating
Under such conditions, a flight from risk among institutions becomes a rational strategy. Selling pressure from large holders shows no signs of weakening. Until the macroeconomic picture changes dramatically and inflation begins to steadily decline toward the Fed's target levels, institutional capital will stay on the sidelines, exerting downward pressure on Bitcoin.
Expert opinion: The Coinbase Premium index is a leading indicator of "smart money" sentiment. The current 40-day selling streak is one of the longest in this cycle. Until we see a reversal of this index into positive territory, any Bitcoin rally will be a corrective bounce, not the start of a new bullish trend. Players should prepare for a prolonged consolidation.