Institutional pressure on Bitcoin: Coinbase Premium remains negative for 40 days
The Bitcoin market is experiencing a prolonged phase of pressure from major players. Analysts note that the Coinbase Premium index, which reflects the price difference between Binance and Coinbase Advanced, has not entered positive territory since May 15. This marks about 40 days of continuous negative signals.
Coinbase Advanced is exclusively oriented toward professional and institutional clients, while Binance remains the main platform for retail traders. A persistently lower price on Coinbase indicates a clear bearish sentiment among large investors. They are actively selling or refraining from buying, creating excess supply.
This dynamic accurately reflects the current macroeconomic backdrop, which remains extremely unfavorable for risk assets. Fresh data on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index reinforced this picture. The figure came in at 4.1% against an expected 4.0%, and core PCE at 3.4% versus a forecast of 3.3%. These are the highest levels since April 2023.
The rise in inflation is partly linked to geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran and the United States. High inflation figures reduce the chances of monetary policy easing, further pressuring risk assets.
Why the Fed is in a Difficult Position
The picture was complicated by GDP data, which came in significantly above expectations at 2.1%. A strong economy coupled with high inflation leaves the regulator with no reason to cut rates. There are no prospects for policy easing in the near term, and the likelihood of additional tightening has returned to the agenda.
Under these conditions, the flight from risk among large investors remains persistent. That is why selling pressure on Bitcoin from institutions shows no signs of abating.
Expert opinion from Cryptalist: The prolonged negative Coinbase Premium is not just a statistical anomaly but a clear signal of a shift in sentiment among "smart money." Until macroeconomic conditions change toward easing, institutions will continue to hedge risks, and Bitcoin will remain under pressure. The key level to watch for a breakout is the index returning to positive territory, which would be the first sign of a trend reversal.