Short-term bitcoin holders capitulate: market on the brink
The Bitcoin market is experiencing a phase of extreme stress. My latest observations of on-chain metrics indicate that short-term holders (STH) — those who bought BTC in the last 155 days — are in deep drawdown. Their aggregate market capitalization collapsed to $237.7 billion on June 26, marking a low not seen since October 2, 2024. For comparison, the indicator was hovering around $239.7 billion at that time.
This decline is critical because the market value of STH coins is now significantly below their realized value. In simple terms, most recent buyers are holding positions with unrealized losses. The situation resembles October 2024, when we witnessed a massive capitulation of short-term holders near an important bottom. However, the current scenario does not guarantee a repeat — the market has changed.
Fear and Greed Index: Extreme Levels
The emotional backdrop confirms the pressure. On June 25, the Fear and Greed Index dropped to 12 points, moving the market into the "extreme fear" zone. Bitcoin was trading around $59,700 at the time. This is not the lowest value in 2025: on June 8, the index fell to 8 with BTC around $63,000, and on February 7, it reached 6 with BTC at $69,000. But the current fear at a lower price underscores the depth of stress among short-term players.
Loss-Making Transfers to Exchanges: 50,000 BTC in 24 Hours
A separate analysis of exchange inflows has revealed an alarming signal. Over the past 24 hours, short-term holders have sent approximately 50,000 BTC to trading platforms at a loss. This is the highest figure since June 4, when the volume approached 60,000 BTC. Binance stands out in particular: about 9,500 BTC from these loss-making transfers went to this exchange. This is the highest since June 3, when more than 16,000 BTC arrived at the platform under similar conditions.
It is important to understand: a transfer to an exchange does not mean an immediate sale of all coins. But it is a clear indicator of intent — the asset is being moved to a place where it can be easily liquidated. This pattern increases the risk of additional short-term selling pressure.
My professional view: Both pictures — the drop in STH market capitalization below October 2024 levels and the rise in loss-making transfers — form a single mosaic of deep capitulation. If these metrics continue to deteriorate, the market could face further correction. However, if Bitcoin stabilizes amid weak sentiment, the same activity that reflects stress could turn into a signal of seller exhaustion. It is precisely at such moments that reversal points are formed.