Why the current bitcoin price is a fiction: an analysis of market anomalies
The Bitcoin market is experiencing a paradoxical situation: the real price of the first cryptocurrency may be far from the figures you see on exchanges. An analysis of on-chain data and trading structure indicates that the current rate is primarily driven by speculative instruments rather than real demand for the asset.
74% of Bitcoins Have Been "Dormant" for Years
A key argument is the staggering stagnation of supply. About 74% of all mined coins have not moved for more than four years. This means the vast majority of the issuance is held by long-term holders who do not participate in trading. The active market, where coins change hands, is actually minuscule. The bulk of liquidity is concentrated on a few major exchanges, which effectively dictate the price to all other platforms.
Bets Instead of Trades
Most operations in the crypto market are not purchases or sales of Bitcoin itself. Traders actively use betting contracts (futures and perpetual swaps), where parties simply "wager" money on the direction of the rate without transferring real coins. The trading volume of such derivatives is many times greater than the turnover of the spot market. It is this virtual pool, rather than real demand, that largely determines the price on exchanges. When there are few live trades and the rate is driven by bets without asset delivery, a "painted" price emerges, detached from reality.
The Domino Effect and Liquidations
The situation is exacerbated by forced position closures. Many participants trade with leverage, meaning they use borrowed funds. When the price jerks sharply, such positions are automatically closed at a loss, pushing the rate even further in the same direction. Against the backdrop of a small number of real trades, a sharp move that knocks small traders out of the game can easily be read as a targeted attack. This creates a chain reaction effect, where one impulse triggers an avalanche of liquidations, completely distorting the true value of the asset.
Analyst's conclusion: The Bitcoin market increasingly resembles a casino, where bets on the future price overshadow the real exchange of coins. As long as long-term holders do not start actively selling and spot trading volume does not increase, the current rate will remain vulnerable to manipulation and far from a fair fundamental valuation.