Bitcoin under pressure: short-term holders record historic losses, market enters 'extreme fear' zone
The Bitcoin market is experiencing a phase of deep stress among short-term holders (STH). On-chain data analysis shows that these participants, who typically bought the asset in the last 155 days, are once again in a zone of significant unrealized losses. The market capitalization of this group has fallen to $237.7 billion, the lowest value since October 2, 2024. For comparison, the indicator stood at $239.7 billion at that time.
A drop in market capitalization below the realized value means that the average purchase price for short-term holders exceeds the current market price of BTC. In other words, most recent buyers are holding positions "in the red." This is a classic capitulation signal, which in the past has often preceded local reversals, but now the situation is complicated by an extreme level of fear.
Fear and Greed Index: On the Brink of Panic
The Fear & Greed Index dropped to 12 on June 25, moving the market into the "extreme fear" zone. Notably, this is not the lowest level in 2024: on June 8, the index fell to 8 with Bitcoin's price around $63,000, and on February 7, it fell to 6 with the price around $69,000. However, the current drop in the index occurs at a significantly lower BTC price (around $59,700), highlighting the depth of pessimism among short-term speculators.
Mass Dumping: 50,000 BTC Sent to Exchanges at a Loss
Additional confirmation of panic sentiment comes from a sharp increase in the volume of BTC transfers to exchanges made at a loss. Over the past 24 hours, short-term holders sent about 50,000 BTC to trading platforms, the highest figure since June 4, when the volume approached 60,000 BTC. Binance accounted for approximately 9,500 BTC of this volume—a record since June 3, when over 16,000 BTC were sent to the exchange under similar conditions.
It is important to understand: transfers to exchanges themselves do not automatically mean the sale of all coins. However, they signal an intention to sell or, at the very least, a high probability of locking in losses. This creates additional downward pressure on the price from short-term speculators.
The combination of factors—the drop in STH market capitalization to October 2024 lows and the record inflow of loss-making coins to exchanges—indicates that the market is in a phase of active capitulation by recent buyers. If this trend continues, we may see further price declines. However, as history shows, local bottoms often form precisely during moments of maximum fear and panic selling. The key question now is whether Bitcoin can stabilize above the psychological level of $60,000, or whether selling pressure will prove stronger.
My expert opinion: The current situation is a classic example of "shaking out weak hands." Extreme fear and loss-making transfers to exchanges are signs that the market is close to a local bottom, but they do not guarantee it. I expect that in the coming days, BTC will test support in the $58,000–$59,000 range. If this level holds, we will see a powerful rebound initiated by seller exhaustion. If it is broken, the next stop could be around $55,000.