Bitcoin short-term holders on the brink: market capitalization has collapsed to October 2024 lows
The Bitcoin market is once again plunging into a zone of extreme stress. According to my data, the market capitalization of short-term holders (STH) fell to $237.7 billion on June 26 — the lowest level since October 2, 2024, when the figure stood at $239.7 billion. This decline signals that recent BTC buyers are increasingly finding themselves in positions with unrealized losses, and their aggregate cost basis has dropped below the actual purchase price.
The situation is exacerbated by the Fear & Greed Index, which crashed to 12 points on June 25 with Bitcoin trading around $59,700. This pushes the market into the "extreme fear" zone. For context, we have seen lower values this year — 8 points on June 8 at $63,000 and 6 points on February 7 at $69,000. However, the current surge in fear is occurring at notably lower price levels, highlighting the depth of panic among short-term speculators.
Massive Dumping at a Loss: 50,000 BTC to Exchanges
Further confirmation of the crisis comes from a sharp increase in the volume of loss-making transfers to exchanges. Over the past 24 hours, short-term holders have sent approximately 50,000 BTC at a loss to trading platforms — the highest figure since June 4, when the number approached 60,000 BTC. Binance stands out in particular: this exchange received around 9,500 BTC of the total volume, a record since June 3, when more than 16,000 BTC arrived on the platform under similar conditions.
It is important to understand: transfers to exchanges themselves do not guarantee an immediate sale, but they create immense pressure on the market. Each such deposit is a signal of an intention to offload the asset, and with the current level of fear, the execution of these intentions could trigger a new wave of capitulation.
My analysis: The confluence of two factors — the drop in STH capitalization below the October 2024 level and the record volume of loss-making transfers — indicates that the market is in a phase of deep repricing. If Bitcoin does not stabilize in the coming days, we risk seeing further capitulation. However, history teaches us that local bottoms are often formed precisely during moments of extreme fear. The key question is whether the asset can hold above the psychological level of $58,000, or if the bears will take over.