Bitcoin under pressure: short-term holders record record losses, and market fear is off the charts
The Bitcoin market is experiencing one of its most intense phases since October 2024. On-chain data monitoring shows that short-term holders (STH) — those who bought BTC in the last 155 days — are in a zone of extreme stress. The market capitalization of this group fell to $237.7 billion on June 26, a low not seen since October 2, 2024, when the figure was around $239.7 billion.
This decline in capitalization means that the current market value of coins held by STH has dropped below their realized value (the price at which they were purchased). In other words, most recent buyers are now holding positions with unrealized losses. This is a classic sign of capitulation at local lows.
Fear and Greed Index: "Extreme Fear" Returns
The psychological state of the market confirms these data. The Fear and Greed Index crashed to 12 on June 25, entering the "extreme fear" zone. Notably, this occurred with Bitcoin's price around $59,700. For comparison, at the start of the year, the index fell to 6 points with a price near $69,000, and in June, it dropped to 8 points at $63,000. The current level of fear at a lower price underscores the depth of pessimism among market participants.
Mass Dumping: 50,000 BTC Sent to Exchanges at a Loss
An additional signal of pressure is the sharp increase in the volume of Bitcoin transfers to exchanges by STH. Over the past 24 hours, this group sent approximately 50,000 BTC to trading platforms at a loss. This is the highest figure since June 4, when the volume approached 60,000 BTC.
The Binance exchange stands out, accounting for about 9,500 BTC of these loss-making transfers. This is the highest value for this platform since June 3, when over 16,000 BTC were deposited under similar conditions. It is important to understand: the mere act of transferring coins to an exchange does not guarantee an immediate sale, but it significantly increases the risk of additional short-term selling pressure.
Together, these metrics paint a concerning picture: the market is in a phase of active capitulation by recent buyers. If indicators continue to worsen, we may see further price declines. However, from a professional analysis perspective, it is precisely such moments of maximum fear and losses that often precede a trend reversal. If Bitcoin stabilizes at current levels, the activity reflecting stress may shift to a signal of seller exhaustion, laying the groundwork for a recovery.