Meta under Zuckerberg explores partnership with Polymarket and Kalshi: a bet on prediction markets
Meta Platforms, led by Mark Zuckerberg, is actively considering strategic collaboration with leading prediction market platforms — Polymarket and Kalshi. According to my data obtained from insider sources, Zuckerberg personally instructed the company's management to explore various partnership options, while simultaneously continuing development of its own product under the codename Arena.
Currently, Meta is analyzing scenarios for integrating popular prediction markets into its ecosystem. Arena, being developed by the company, is an application where users will be able to make predictions regarding political events, sports results, economic indicators, and other significant topics. At the initial stage, the service will operate based on game points, excluding monetary bets, but in the future, the introduction of full-fledged financial mechanisms is not ruled out.
Betting on a Fast-Growing Segment
Meta's interest in prediction markets is not a coincidence but a calculated move amid their rapid growth. Following the US presidential elections, this sector has become one of the most dynamic at the intersection of fintech and the crypto industry. Polymarket, based on blockchain infrastructure, and US-regulated Kalshi have significantly increased both their audience and trading volumes over the past year.
According to available information, Meta has set an ambitious goal — to attract at least 100 million monthly active users to its service. In the long term, Arena's features could be integrated into Facebook and Messenger, although a final decision on launching the product has not yet been made.
Meta Does Not Want to Stay on the Sidelines
This is already the second signal in the past week indicating the company's serious intentions to enter the prediction market. Earlier, it became known that Zuckerberg instructed a small team to develop its own alternative to Polymarket and Kalshi. Now, Meta is also considering a partnership scenario with established players to quickly establish itself in this promising segment.
Against this backdrop, it is worth noting that US gambling associations recently called on the Senate to ban prediction markets related to sports and gambling as part of a new crypto regulation bill. This adds an element of uncertainty to Meta's plans.
Analytical Commentary: Prediction markets are experiencing a boom, and the entry of a giant like Meta could radically change the landscape. However, regulatory risks remain a key factor: if pressure from the gambling lobby intensifies, the company will have to seek creative paths to legalization, possibly through the "game points" model it is already testing.