Meta is targeting the prediction market: Zuckerberg considers partnership with Polymarket and Kalshi
The prediction market is no longer a niche hobby for crypto enthusiasts — Web 2.0 giants are now seriously vying for it. According to my information, Meta Platforms is actively exploring the possibility of integrating with leading prediction platforms — Polymarket and Kalshi. The company's CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, has personally instructed management to work on this scenario, while simultaneously continuing internal development of its own service under the codename Arena.
The situation is extremely telling. Meta is not just looking to create another app — it aims to position itself at the intersection of financial technology, gamification, and social networks. According to internal sources, the company is considering several options: from a direct partnership with Polymarket (operating on the blockchain) and the US-regulated Kalshi, to fully integrating their functionality into its ecosystem.
At the initial stage, the in-house project Arena will operate on a system of game points rather than real money. However, as I understand from Meta's strategy, this is only a temporary measure. In the long term, the company does not rule out the introduction of full-fledged financial mechanisms, which would fundamentally change the market dynamics.
Ambitious Goals and Real Risks
Meta has set truly ambitious goals: to attract at least 100 million active users per month. For comparison, Polymarket, which dominates the crypto segment, processes volumes worth billions of dollars, but its active audience is significantly smaller. If Arena is integrated into Facebook and Messenger, Meta will gain instant access to a multi-billion user base.
Interestingly, this is already the second signal in the past week. Earlier, it became known that Zuckerberg instructed a small team to develop its own analogue of Polymarket. Now the company is also considering a collaboration scenario — this suggests that Meta wants to act quickly, without wasting time building from scratch.
However, not everything is smooth sailing. US gambling associations have already called on the Senate to ban sports prediction markets under new crypto regulations. Meta, with its reputation and scale, will become the first target for regulators if it decides to enter this market with real money.
My analysis: Meta's move is a classic signal that the prediction market is entering the mainstream phase. However, I warn: integrating such mechanisms into social networks carries enormous risks of manipulating public opinion and financial losses for unprepared users. Polymarket and Kalshi have survived amid high volatility and regulatory pressure, but under Meta's wing, this market could change beyond recognition — and not necessarily for the better.