July forecast for Ethereum: Bears target $1400, but the bottom may be near
June 2026 is ending for Ethereum under pressure. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap is trading nearly $500 cheaper than a year ago, and the market is frozen in anticipation of key levels. My analysis of the situation shows that ETH's fate in July will be decided in a narrow range, where bears still hold the advantage, but signs of a potential reversal are emerging.
Technical Levels: Where Resistance and Support Lie
Financial manager and crypto analyst Nikita Kutsenko believes that ETH's dynamics will be tightly tied to Bitcoin. He estimates the summer trading range at $1650–1390. In his view, Ether will experience the full complexity of the BTC situation, and the most likely move in July is toward the $1390 mark, which is the low from April 2025. This assessment is shared by Finam Financial Group analyst Nikolay Dudchenko, who examines the situation through the lens of nearest technical levels. He believes that a break below $1500 will open the door for bears to $1400, and in the longer term, to $1200, the lows of 2022. However, Dudchenko calls the situation ambiguous: on the long-term timeframe, the price is testing a trendline formed by the lows of June-July 2022, November 2022, and April 2025, and he does not rule out a bounce from this level with an upward correction.
BCS World of Investments stock market expert Oleg Reshetnikov sets a base range of $1385–1850. He notes that network metrics and recent news surrounding the Ethereum Foundation do not add optimism. Ether may look weaker than Bitcoin due to its higher sensitivity to the overall risk-off sentiment in the market.
The Long-Term Investor's Perspective
Portfolio manager and SF Education instructor Alexander Ryabinin looks at the market from a different angle. In his assessment, Ether is under pressure, like the entire altcoin market, but this market is starting to become more resilient. Panic sellers have already sold, and both weak and strong hands have been shaken out of the alt market. He believes the bottom has been passed or is close, and current prices are attractive for long-term investing. At the same time, he notes that the price could still go lower, and he is gradually building a portfolio of strong assets.
Conclusions and My Opinion
All four experts agree that ETH is under pressure and closely tied to Bitcoin's dynamics. The lower boundaries of the forecasts converge in the $1385–1400 range. Dudchenko, unlike his colleagues, allows for a drop to $1200. Discrepancies are visible in the upper boundary: Kutsenko is cautious with the ceiling ($1650), while Reshetnikov ($1850) and Dudchenko allow for a wider upward move. In terms of sentiment, Ryabinin stands out: unlike his technically oriented colleagues, he views the situation as a long-term investor and believes the bottom has been passed or is close.
The common denominator: ETH's fate is being decided at the $1500 (resistance) and $1385–1400 (support) levels. The market is still waiting for confirmation of a reversal. From my perspective, the expert consensus indicates that the $1385–1400 zone is critical. If bears cannot establish a foothold below, we will see the formation of a strong bottom. However, a break below this level will open the door to significantly lower values.