Meta is preparing to break into the prediction market: Zuckerberg is considering a partnership with Polymarket and Kalshi
Mark Zuckerberg has instructed Meta's management to explore collaboration options with leading prediction market platforms — Polymarket and Kalshi. Simultaneously, the company is actively developing its own service under the codename Arena, which is set to become a direct competitor to these projects.
Double Strike Strategy
Meta is not merely observing the rapid growth of prediction markets; it intends to enter this segment with maximum force. According to my information, the company is considering two scenarios: either deep integration with existing leaders (Polymarket on the blockchain and regulated Kalshi), or launching its own product, Arena. The initial version of Arena will operate on a game points system, but the introduction of real financial mechanisms is not ruled out in the future.
Betting on 100 Million Users
Meta's ambitions are impressive: the company aims to attract at least 100 million active monthly users. Part of Arena's functionality may be integrated directly into Facebook and Messenger. This is a logical step — after the US presidential elections, prediction markets have become one of the fastest-growing segments at the intersection of fintech and the crypto industry.
Time is of the Essence
This is already the second signal in the past week indicating Zuckerberg's serious intentions. Earlier, it became known that a small team within Meta is already working on its own version of Polymarket. Now, the company is also considering partnership scenarios to seize the moment and quickly establish itself in a market that, according to analysts, will only continue to grow.
My comment: Meta's decision to enter the prediction market is not just an experiment but a strategic move. Polymarket and Kalshi have proven the viability of the model, but their audience is still limited to crypto enthusiasts and traders. If Meta integrates predictions into its social platforms with a billion-user base, it could radically change the industry landscape. However, regulatory risks remain high — US gambling associations are already lobbying for a ban on sports prediction markets. It will be interesting to see how Zuckerberg balances innovation and compliance.