Ethereum in July 2026: bearish scenario dominates, but is the bottom already near?
Ethereum ends June 2026 in a subdued state, trading nearly $500 cheaper than a year earlier. Amid overall market contraction and risk aversion, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has come under significant pressure. However, it is precisely in such moments that the most interesting entry points form for those with a long-term perspective.
The current situation on the ETHUSDT charts indicates a high degree of uncertainty. The key resistance level is around $1500 — this is what bears are trying to hold to push the price down to the $1385-1400 zone. A break of this support would open the way to $1200, which is the 2022 low. However, the bullish scenario should not be dismissed: a strong deviation from the moving average on daily timeframes could trigger a sharp rebound.
Ethereum's network metrics are not adding optimism yet. Developer activity and news surrounding the Ethereum Foundation remain neutral, which does not encourage capital inflow. ETH shows higher sensitivity to the overall risk-off sentiment compared to Bitcoin, making it vulnerable in the short term.
Technical Levels: Where the Bears Are, and Where Support Lies
Chart analysis shows that Ethereum's fate in July will be decided at the $1500 (resistance) and $1385-1400 (support) levels. If bears manage to establish themselves below $1500, the next target will be the $1400 zone, followed by $1200 — the 2022 low. However, supporting a corrective move upward is the strong deviation of the price from the long-term trendline formed by the lows of June-July 2022, November 2022, and April 2025.
It is important to wait for confirming signals. Any rebound from current levels must be backed by an increase in trading volume. For now, the market remains in wait-and-see mode.
The Long-Term Investor's Perspective
From a long-term perspective, Ethereum looks attractive. The altcoin market is beginning to show signs of resilience: panic has subsided, and those who wanted to sell have already done so. This means that "weak hands" have left the market, and the remaining participants are ready for accumulation.
Prices for long-term investing are becoming increasingly appealing. I believe the bottom has either already been reached or is very close. Of course, short-term declines cannot be ruled out, but for those looking at a 12-18 month horizon, current levels look like an accumulation zone.
Conclusions
The consensus among analysts is that Ethereum remains under pressure and is closely tied to Bitcoin's dynamics. The lower bounds of forecasts converge in the $1385-1400 range, making this zone a critical support. The upper bounds range from $1650 to $1850, indicating the potential for a broad upward move if sentiment shifts.
My expert opinion: The current correction is not a crash but a natural phase of the market cycle. Ethereum, like the entire altcoin market, is undergoing a period of purging excess liquidity. For investors with a horizon of 12 months or more, current levels represent a zone for forming a long-term bottom. However, for short-term trading, it is worth waiting for confirmation of a reversal above $1500.