Crypto news

Bitcoin ends the first half of 2026 near its yearly lows, consolidating around $59–60k amid a massive exodus of investors from risk assets. The decline has affected not only cryptocurrencies but also gold, silver, oil, and stock indices — the market is experiencing a classic "risk-off" move. Additional pressure comes from the financial troubles of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), the largest corporate holder of BTC, as well as continued outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs.

After analyzing the current market conditions and relying on assessments from leading experts, I present a consolidated forecast for Bitcoin in July 2026. All surveyed specialists agree that the summer will be weak and volatility will remain elevated, but their views on the depth and direction of the correction diverge.

Bearish Scenario: Pressure Persists

The most pessimistic is financial manager and crypto analyst Nikita Kutsenko. He highlights three key issues: traditionally low summer liquidity with heightened volatility, capital flow into "safe havens" around AI, and the "Michael Saylor problem." In his view, the head of Strategy is trying to centralize Bitcoin, which contradicts its very essence, and his business could go bankrupt at any moment. In that case, shareholders would be forced to sell the entire BTC stash, amounting to 4.4% of all coins.

"In July, I see potential for BTC to drop to $50,000," — this is Nikita Kutsenko's Bitcoin forecast for July 2026.

According to his assessment, the summer could pass in consolidation within the range of $48,000–70,000. Analyst at FG Finam, Alexander Potavin, is also not on the buyers' side. He notes that the support level at $59k is too obvious for all participants and therefore may not hold. Significant outflows from spot ETFs began as early as late April and continue: BlackRock has been almost constantly placing sell orders for Bitcoin and Ether in recent days.

"It feels like, amid falling prices for most risky assets, a liquidity crisis has emerged in the market, which, like a vortex, is sucking in even those who did not want to sell their assets," describes the situation Alexander Potavin.

This leads to forced position closures via margin calls. Many market participants expect a drop to the $55k area. However, if the "risk-off" sentiment subsides, a recovery to the nearest resistance at $67k is possible.

Cautious Optimism: Prices Near the Bottom

Portfolio manager and SF Education lecturer Alexander Ryabinin views the situation differently. The drop from $82k to $58k has triggered new panic, and sentiment is now at lows — bearish sentiment, fear. And this, in his opinion, is usually a good time to buy.

"The bottom has either been passed or is close," believes Alexander Ryabinin.

At the same time, whether this is a local bottom or the bottom of the entire cycle is still unclear: he expects high volatility with swings and drops exceeding 20%, but long-term, he considers current prices good for investing.

Stock market expert at BCS World of Investments, Oleg Reshetnikov, has taken a neutral, wait-and-see position. He believes the crypto market is entering a traditionally "sluggish" summer phase against the backdrop of a prolonged downward cycle.

"We will likely see attempts at stabilization in July after a weak June," notes Oleg Reshetnikov.

Confident dynamics in ETFs, according to him, are still lacking for an active recovery. He estimates the base range at $55,000–68,000.

Conclusions and Consensus Forecast

All four experts agree that the summer will be weak, and volatility will remain elevated in July. The divergence lies in the direction and interpretation of current levels. Kutsenko and Potavin see room for further decline: the former allows for a move to $50,000, the latter to $55,000. Both point to the risk from Strategy as a pressure factor.

Ryabinin and Reshetnikov believe prices are near the bottom or have already passed it, and view current levels as attractive for long-term purchases.

Notably, the lower boundaries of the forecast ranges coincide: Potavin names $55,000 as a downside target, Reshetnikov sets the lower boundary of the range at $55,000, and Ryabinin speaks of a bottom near $58,000. The upper targets are also close — $67–70k.

Thus, despite all the differences in sentiment, the consensus forecast for Bitcoin in July 2026 converges around the range $50,000–70,000, with the key fork remaining the fate of "risk-off" sentiment and the financial position of Strategy.

My expert commentary: The current scenario resembles a classic "bear trap" amid macroeconomic uncertainty. However, given the dominance of institutional flows and the risk of forced liquidation from Strategy, I lean towards July becoming a month for forming a local bottom in the $52–55k zone, followed by a bounce to $65–68k. I recommend investors exercise extreme caution and avoid excessive leverage.