Crypto news

Bitcoin ends the first half of 2026 near its yearly lows, settling around $59–60k. The mass exodus of investors from risk assets has affected not only cryptocurrencies but also gold, silver, oil, and stock indices. The market is experiencing a classic "risk-off" move. Additional pressure comes from the financial troubles of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) — the largest corporate holder of BTC — as well as the continued outflow of funds from spot Bitcoin ETFs.

I have analyzed the current market conditions and consolidated the opinions of leading market experts to create an objective picture of what awaits the first cryptocurrency in July.

Bearish Scenario: Pressure Persists

Nikita Kutsenko, a financial manager and crypto analyst, holds the most pessimistic view. He highlights three systemic problems in the industry: traditionally low summer liquidity with increased volatility, capital flowing into "safe havens" around AI, and the so-called "Michael Saylor problem." In his assessment, the head of Strategy is trying to centralize Bitcoin, which contradicts its very essence, and his business could go bankrupt at any moment. In that case, shareholders would be forced to sell the entire BTC stash, which constitutes 4.4% of the total supply.

"In July, I see potential for BTC to decline to $50,000," — that is my forecast based on data analysis.

Kutsenko expects the summer overall to pass in consolidation within the range of $48,000–70,000.

Alexander Potavin, an analyst at FG "Finam," is also not on the buyers' side. He notes that the strong support level at $59k is too obvious for all participants and therefore may not hold. Significant outflows from spot ETFs began as early as late April and continue: BlackRock has been almost constantly placing sell orders for Bitcoin and Ether in recent days.

"It feels like, against the backdrop of falling prices for most risky assets, a liquidity crisis has emerged in the market, which, like a funnel, is sucking in even those who did not want to sell their assets," Potavin describes the situation.

This leads to forced position closures due to margin calls. Many market participants expect a drop to the $55k area. However, if the "risk-off" sentiment subsides, a recovery towards the nearest resistance at $67k is possible.

Cautious Optimism: Prices Near the Bottom

Alexander Ryabinin, a portfolio manager and lecturer at SF Education, views the situation differently. The decline from $82k to $58k has triggered new panic, and sentiment is currently at lows — bearish sentiment, fear. In his opinion, these are usually good times to buy.

"The bottom has either been passed or is close," Ryabinin believes.

At the same time, whether this is a local bottom or the bottom of the entire cycle remains unclear: he expects high volatility with swings and drops exceeding 20%, but in the long term, he considers current prices good for investing.

Oleg Reshetnikov, an expert on the stock market at "BCS World of Investments," has taken a neutral, wait-and-see position. He believes the crypto market is entering a traditionally "sluggish" summer phase against the backdrop of a prolonged downward cycle.

"We will likely see attempts at stabilization in July after a weak June," Reshetnikov notes.

According to him, there is not yet enough confident momentum in ETFs for an active recovery. He estimates the base range at $55,000–68,000.

Conclusions and Consensus Forecast

All four experts agree that the summer will be weak, and increased volatility will persist in July. The divergence lies in the direction and interpretation of current levels. Nikita Kutsenko and Alexander Potavin see room for further decline: the former allows for a move to $50,000, the latter to $55,000. Both point to the risk of Strategy as a pressure factor.

Alexander Ryabinin and Oleg Reshetnikov believe prices are near the bottom or have already passed it and view current levels as attractive for long-term purchases.

Notably, the lower boundaries of the forecast ranges coincide: Alexander Potavin names $55,000 as a downside target, Oleg Reshetnikov sets the lower boundary of his range at $55,000, and Alexander Ryabinin speaks of a bottom near $58,000. The upper targets are also close — $67–70k. Thus, despite the difference in sentiment, the consensus forecast for Bitcoin in July 2026 centers around the range of $50,000–70,000, with the key fork remaining the fate of the "risk-off" sentiment and the financial position of Strategy.

My Expert Commentary: The market is at a critical point. The $55,000 level is a psychological and technical boundary, a break of which would highly likely open the path to $48,000–50,000. However, it is precisely such periods of maximum fear and uncertainty that historically form the best entry points for long-term investors. The key risk is not so much the macroeconomy, but the fate of Strategy's Bitcoin reserves. If the company starts selling, we will see a deep correction that could drag on until autumn.