Meta is preparing a major entry into the prediction market: Zuckerberg is considering a partnership with Polymarket and Kalshi
Mark Zuckerberg has instructed Meta's management to explore the possibility of partnering with leading prediction market platforms — Polymarket and Kalshi. At the same time, the company continues to develop its own service, Arena, indicating a strategic interest in one of the most dynamic segments at the intersection of fintech and the crypto industry.
Double Strike Strategy: Partnership and In-House Development
Meta is considering several scenarios for integrating prediction markets into its ecosystem. On one hand, it is exploring opportunities for collaboration with established players — the decentralized platform Polymarket, which operates on blockchain infrastructure, and the US-regulated Kalshi. On the other hand, the company is actively developing its own application, Arena, which allows users to make predictions on political, sports, and economic events.
In the initial phase, Arena will use a system of game points rather than real money bets. However, this is only a temporary measure: in the future, Meta does not rule out the introduction of full-fledged financial mechanisms, which will fundamentally change the market dynamics.
Ambitious Goals and Integration with Giants
According to available data, Meta aims to attract at least 100 million active users monthly. In the long term, Arena's features could be integrated directly into Facebook and Messenger, giving the service unprecedented audience reach. However, a final decision on the product launch has not yet been made — the company is acting cautiously, weighing all risks and opportunities.
This is already the second signal in a short period, confirming the seriousness of Zuckerberg's intentions. Prediction markets, which surged in interest after the US presidential elections, are becoming a key arena for tech giants. Meta clearly does not want to be left out of this trend.
Analyst's Perspective
Meta's strategy is a classic example of "hedge your bets." Partnering with Polymarket or Kalshi would provide instant access to liquidity and technology, while in-house development offers full control over the product in the long term. However, regulatory risks should not be overlooked: US gambling associations are already calling for a ban on sports prediction markets, which could seriously complicate the company's plans. Given Meta's scale, its entry into this segment will act as a catalyst for the entire market but will also attract increased attention from regulators.