Meta has set its sights on prediction markets: Zuckerberg seeks partnerships with Polymarket and Kalshi
Meta Platforms, led by Mark Zuckerberg, is taking active steps to enter the prediction markets segment. According to data obtained from insider sources, the company's management has commissioned a study of potential partnerships with leading platforms — Polymarket and Kalshi. This is happening in parallel with the development of its own service, Arena, which will initially operate based on game points but could potentially integrate real financial mechanisms in the future.
Strategic Maneuver in a Rapidly Growing Field
Meta's interest in prediction markets is no coincidence. Following the US presidential elections, this segment experienced explosive growth, becoming one of the most dynamic at the intersection of fintech and the crypto industry. Blockchain-based Polymarket and regulated Kalshi have already attracted millions of users and increased trading volumes. Meta, evidently, does not want to stay on the sidelines of this trend.
According to my data, the company's ambitions are impressive: it aims to attract at least 100 million monthly active users to Arena. In the long term, the service's features could be integrated into Facebook and Messenger, providing instant access to a vast audience. However, a final decision on the product launch has not yet been made.
Dual Approach: Development and Partnership
This is the second signal in the past week regarding Meta's intentions. Earlier, it was reported that Zuckerberg tasked a small team with creating its own version of Polymarket. Now, the company is also considering a collaboration scenario with established players. This dual approach — developing its own product while simultaneously exploring partnerships — underscores the seriousness of Meta's intent to establish itself in this segment as quickly as possible.
My analysis: The entry of a giant like Meta into prediction markets could radically reshape the industry landscape. Polymarket and Kalshi would certainly benefit from integration with Meta's platforms, but for the company itself, this is a risky move given the regulatory pressure from US gambling associations, which are already calling for a ban on sports prediction markets. Keep an eye on developments — this could become one of the key trends of 2025.