The Dollar Index DXY is on the verge of a reversal: what awaits the ruble and whether it is worth buying currency in July
The US Dollar Index DXY ended June at multi-month highs, rising to 101.8 — its highest level since May 2025. The main growth drivers were the escalation of the Middle East conflict and the pause in the Fed's easing cycle. However, the market has already revised its expectations: traders are pricing in not a rate cut, but a rate hike as early as September. The key turning point for the dollar will be the Federal Reserve's July meeting.
Financial manager and crypto analyst Nikita Kutsenko notes that JP Morgan does not forecast a rate cut in 2026, pushing easing back to the second half of the year. In his assessment, consolidation or a slight strengthening of the DXY in the 100–103 range is likely in the coming months. Oleg Reshetnikov from BCS World of Investments holds a similar view: the dollar will remain strong amid the Fed's hawkish policy and reduced geopolitical risks, but the main upside potential has already been priced in. His base range is $100.3–103.6.
Alexander Potavin from Finam points to a paradox: the dollar's rise is not confirmed by the government bond market. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries fell to 4.4% versus 4.51% a few days earlier, which could be a consequence of Brent crude oil dropping to $73 per barrel. He draws historical parallels: after the Fed meeting in October 2023, the DXY rose by 1.8% over a week and a half, updated its annual high, and then reversed downward. In his opinion, the rally in July will not continue — at most, the dollar could rise to resistance at 102.0, followed by a correction back to the 100 level.
Alexander Ryabinin from SF Education believes that the flight to the dollar is driven by fear in other currencies, but this is only the initial narrative. He predicts that soon, when a slight shock occurs, the dollar will begin to decline actively.
Ruble Forecast
The behavior of the dollar/ruble pair is primarily determined by internal factors: oil prices, export revenues, the budget rule, import demand, and the Central Bank of Russia's key rate. Even with a strong dollar on the global market, the ruble can behave autonomously — it should not be forgotten that its exchange rate is set by the Central Bank itself. Brent's decline to $73 is a negative signal for the ruble: lower oil revenues mean less foreign currency earnings and potential pressure on the exchange rate. The correction of the dollar itself, expected by most experts, is rather a factor in favor of the ruble, but the effect will be secondary and weak.
Conclusions. All four experts agree that the dollar is currently stable, and the main trigger for July is the Fed meeting. Disagreements concern further dynamics. Nikita Kutsenko and Oleg Reshetnikov see a consolidation scenario with an upper boundary around 103 and believe the main growth has been priced in. Alexander Potavin and Alexander Ryabinin expect a reversal: the former predicts a moderate correction to 100 after a possible move to 102, the latter expects an active decline after a short-term shock. The potential for further dollar strengthening is limited, and in the medium term, weakening is more likely if the Fed's rhetoric softens.
My professional view: the current situation resembles a classic "bull trap" — the dollar is strong, but the fundamental drivers (hawkish Fed and geopolitics) are already priced in. Buying the currency at these levels for long-term holding is risky. The ruble, all else being equal, could receive support from a DXY correction, but the key factor will remain oil price dynamics and the actions of the Central Bank of Russia.