Crypto news

Bitcoin ends the first half of 2026 near its yearly lows, settling around $59–60k. The market is under pressure from a classic "risk-off" sentiment — investors are massively fleeing not only cryptocurrencies but also gold, silver, oil, and stock indices. The situation is exacerbated by the financial difficulties of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), the largest corporate holder of BTC, as well as a steady outflow of funds from spot bitcoin ETFs.

I have analyzed the opinions of leading experts to create an objective picture of what awaits the first cryptocurrency in July. Consensus, as often happens, is absent — views are divided from deeply bearish to cautiously optimistic.

Bearish Scenario: Pressure Continues

Nikita Kutsenko, a financial manager and crypto analyst, is the most pessimistic. He highlights three key pressure factors: traditionally low summer liquidity, capital flow into "safe havens" amid geopolitical tensions, and the so-called "Michael Saylor problem." In his assessment, the head of Strategy is trying to centralize bitcoin, which contradicts its very essence, and his business could go bankrupt at any moment, forcing shareholders to dump 4.4% of all bitcoins.

"In July, I see potential for BTC to drop to $50,000," is Kutsenko's forecast. He believes the summer as a whole will pass in consolidation within the range of $48,000–70,000.

Alexander Potavin, an analyst at FG Finam, also does not expect a quick reversal. He notes that the support level of $59k is too obvious for all market participants and may not hold. Significant outflows from spot ETFs, which began in late April, continue: BlackRock has been consistently placing sell orders for bitcoin and ether in recent days.

"It feels like, amid falling prices for most risky assets, a liquidity crisis has emerged in the market, which, like a funnel, sucks in even those who did not want to sell," Potavin describes the situation.

According to him, this leads to forced position closures via margin calls. Many market participants expect a drop to the $55k area. However, if the "risk-off" sentiment subsides, a recovery towards the nearest resistance at $67k is possible.

Cautious Optimism: Prices Near the Bottom

Alexander Ryabinin, a portfolio manager and lecturer at SF Education, views the situation differently. The drop from $82k to $58k has triggered new panic, and sentiment is now at lows — bearish, fearful. And this, in his opinion, is usually a good time to buy.

"The bottom has either been passed or is close," Ryabinin believes.

At the same time, whether this is a local bottom or the bottom of the entire cycle is still unclear: he expects high volatility with swings and drops exceeding 20%, but long-term, he considers current prices good for investing.

Oleg Reshetnikov, an equity market expert at BCS World of Investments, has taken a neutral, wait-and-see position. He believes the crypto market is entering a traditionally "sluggish" summer phase against the backdrop of a prolonged downward cycle.

"We will likely see attempts at stabilization in July after a weak June," Reshetnikov notes.

According to him, there is not yet enough confident dynamics in ETFs for an active recovery. He estimates the base range at $55,000–68,000.

My Conclusion: Consensus Around $50,000–70,000

All four experts agree that the summer will be weak, and volatility will remain elevated in July. The divergence lies in the direction and interpretation of current levels. Kutsenko and Potavin see room for further decline: the former allows for a move to $50,000, the latter to $55,000. Both point to the risk of Strategy as a pressure factor.

Ryabinin and Reshetnikov believe prices are near the bottom or have already passed it, and view current levels as attractive for long-term purchases.

The coincidence of the lower boundaries of the forecast ranges is telling: Potavin names $55,000 as a downside target, Reshetnikov sets the lower boundary of the range at $55,000, and Ryabinin speaks of a bottom near $58,000. The upper targets are also close — $67–70k.

Thus, despite all the differences in sentiment, the consensus forecast for bitcoin in July 2026 converges around the range of $50,000–70,000, with the key fork remaining the fate of the "risk-off" sentiment and the financial position of Strategy. In my view, a break below $55,000 would be critical — it would open the path to $48,000–50,000, while a consolidation above $62,000 could be the first signal of a medium-term trend reversal.

This material is not an investment recommendation. Expert forecasts reflect their personal opinions.