A bearish scenario for Ethereum: weak demand and divergence of signals indicate a risk of further decline
The Ethereum market has fallen completely under the control of bears. Despite isolated signs of buyer activity, fundamental indicators point to a lack of real capital capable of reversing the trend. A key indicator — the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio on Binance — is above the 1 mark, which is traditionally considered a bullish signal. However, the price of ETH is not showing an adequate reaction.
This divergence suggests that buyer pressure is insufficient for sustainable growth. Large sellers continue to absorb incoming buy orders, while real capital inflow into the spot market remains weak. This is a classic picture of a market dominated by bears.
Signal Divergence: A Dangerous Symptom
Of particular note is the Fund Price indicator, which has been steadily declining since its April peak. This is direct evidence that appetite for long positions in the derivatives market is waning. Large traders are reducing their exposure, coinciding with the decline in ETH's price. The simultaneous drop in both indicators — Fund Price and price — only reinforces the bearish trend.
Even when the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio rose to 1.13, ETH only responded with a minor move. Under normal market conditions, such a level would have supported a confident recovery. Instead, we see a weak reaction, indicating that sell orders still outweigh aggressive buying. Large players are likely using short-term bounces to distribute their assets. This is more a continuation of the downtrend than the start of a sustainable recovery.
Technical Picture: A New Low Is Not Far Off
From a technical standpoint, ETH's price continues to form lower highs, while new lows are appearing. This confirms the persistence of the overall bearish structure. There are still no signs of strong spot demand.
The likelihood of further decline is now significantly higher than the chances of a sustainable recovery. Until the Fund Price begins to rise and ETH breaks out of its downtrend, the recent buyer activity should be interpreted as a "dead cat bounce" — a temporary rise in a falling market, not a genuine bullish reversal.
My view: The Ethereum market is in a phase of accumulating bearish energy. The lack of real capital inflow and declining risk appetite in derivatives are alarming signals. Any short-term growth now is an opportunity to sell, not to buy. Until we see a sustained rise in Fund Price and a breakout of key resistance levels, expecting a trend change is premature.