The share of speculators in bitcoin has plummeted to 27.6% — analysts see signs of an approaching bottom
The Bitcoin market is undergoing a fundamental transformation. According to my on-chain data analysis, a key metric — the realized dominance of short-term holders (STH) — has dropped to a critical level of 27.6%. This is not just a number; it is a signal that speculative capital is leaving the asset, and control is gradually shifting to long-term investors.
What does the realized dominance metric show?
Realized dominance tracks where so-called "realized capital" is concentrated — among short-term holders (coins younger than 6 months) or long-term holders (older than 6 months). When speculators dominate, the market overheats, and this has historically coincided with cycle peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021. When capital flows into the "diamond hands" of long-term investors, we see the formation of a bottom.
The current value of 27.6% places Bitcoin in the zone of statistical undervaluation. For comparison: extremely speculative dominance is recorded above 94.8%, and historical equilibrium is around 50%. Below 28.7% is already a zone where the market is controlled by patient players buying at lows.
The bottom is a process, not a point
It is important to understand: historical lows do not form instantly. In past cycles, short-term holder dominance continued to decline as more weak hands capitulated before the recovery. The data suggests that speculation has already been largely washed out of the market, and long-term holders are regaining control. Bitcoin is approaching a structure historically associated with major cyclical bottoms.
My expert opinion: Although current indicators point to the proximity of a bottom, full capitulation is not yet complete. I expect another phase of panic among the most vulnerable participants before a new accumulation cycle begins. However, for patient investors, current levels look extremely attractive for entry.