The Bitcoin risk index has exited the "green zone": what this means for the market
Analytical indicators are recording a regime change in the Bitcoin market. The specialized BTC risk index, calculated based on on-chain data, has confidently left the zone of extremely low values and is now shifting towards the middle range. This is an important signal that points to a gradual change in the structure of market risk.
Delta Cap Metric: What's Behind the Index Rise
The index is based on the ratio of the so-called Delta Cap to Bitcoin's market capitalization, adjusted by a scaling factor. Delta Cap, in turn, represents the difference between realized capitalization (the value of all coins at the price of their last movement) and the average capitalization over the entire history of the network. Simply put, the higher this ratio, the more expensive the market is relative to its "fair" historical baseline—and the greater the potential for a correction.
Currently, the index has surpassed its 90-day moving average. This is not a short-term spike, but a sustained trend. The market is no longer in the same low-risk zone that characterized the beginning of the current cycle.
Historical Parallels: Peaks Are Shrinking
It is interesting to trace the dynamics of the index during previous bearish phases. During major market bottoms—in January 2015 (value around 4.20), December 2018 (around 4.39), and the stressful periods of June and November 2022 (3.37–3.40)—the index reached much higher levels than it does now.
However, the key nuance is that since 2018, the highs of the risk index have been forming progressively lower peaks. Since the indicator is normalized by market capitalization, a mechanical comparison with historical thresholds of 4.0–4.4 becomes irrelevant as the market itself grows. The current reversal could occur at significantly lower values than in the past.
Practical Takeaway: Room for Maneuver Remains
Currently, the index has only left the low-risk zone and entered the middle range. This means that Bitcoin is no longer "cheap" by this metric, but it has not yet entered the overheating zone, after which major crashes typically began. On the contrary, previous market bottoms formed precisely at extremely high index values—they marked reversal points upward.
Room for downward movement still remains. Exceeding the 90-day average is a signal of growing risk, not a marker of a reached bottom.
Expert Opinion: The market is transitioning into a more mature phase of the cycle. The current rise in the index is not a reason to panic, but a reminder that there is no such thing as a "free lunch." Investors should pay closer attention to on-chain metrics and avoid extrapolating past price patterns into the future, as the risk structure changes along with the growth in capitalization.