Ethereum under pressure: bears dictate terms, and the bullish signal turned out to be false
The Ethereum market is going through tough times. Despite occasional bursts of buying activity, the overall trend remains bearish, and fundamental data confirms this. The key indicator — the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio on Binance — held above the 1 mark for some time, which is traditionally considered a bullish signal. However, the price of ETH barely reacted to this, indicating a deep imbalance in the market.
My on-chain data analysis shows that the current situation is a classic example of signal divergence. The Fund Price indicator, which reflects appetite for long positions in derivatives, has been steadily declining since its April highs. This means that large players are reducing their exposure rather than increasing it. The simultaneous decline in both Fund Price and the price of ETH itself only reinforces the bearish sentiment.
Why didn't the "bullish" signal work?
It would seem that the rise in the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio to 1.13 should have pushed the price up. But instead of a confident recovery, we see only a sluggish reaction. This is a direct indication that sell orders still outweigh aggressive buying. Large holders are likely using short-term bounces to distribute their assets rather than entering new long positions.
Such divergence is a much more reliable indicator of a continuing downtrend than the start of a sustainable recovery. Buying demand on the spot market remains too weak to absorb the selling pressure.
Technical picture and forecast
From a technical perspective, Ethereum continues to form lower highs and update local lows. The bearish market structure persists, and there are no signs of a strong bottom forming yet. As long as the Fund Price indicator does not start to rise confidently and the price does not break the downtrend, any bursts of buying activity should be viewed as temporary bounces rather than a reversal.
My professional opinion: I would characterize the current buying activity as a "dead cat bounce." The market is trying to find support, but fundamental capital flows do not support this process. The likelihood of further decline for Ethereum in the near term remains high. A sustainable trend change requires a steady inflow of capital into the spot market and a resumption of Fund Price growth, but for now, we are only seeing short-term manipulations.