Gold in July 2026: Bears vs Bulls — Who will win the battle for $4500?
The gold market is experiencing a period of turbulence following an impressive rally. A combination of hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve (Fed) under new Chairman Kevin Warsh, a strengthening dollar, and declining geopolitical risks is prompting investors to reassess their strategies regarding safe-haven assets. Analysts are divided in their opinions: some see the current decline as merely a temporary correction, while others warn of a shift in the market trend. I have analyzed the key forecasts for July 2026 to identify the most likely scenarios.
Fed and Dollar Pressure: The Bearish Scenario
Financial manager and crypto analyst Nikita Kutsenko is the most pessimistic. He notes that the Fed under Warsh has become aggressively hawkish, the market is pricing in a rate hike in September, US-Iran negotiations have eased geopolitical fears, and gold ETFs are experiencing significant outflows. Kutsenko draws a parallel with 2013, stating that "historically: a hawkish Fed + a strong dollar + rising real yields = one of the worst environments for gold." His target is the $3500 zone (the peak of mid-2025), and the $4100-4200 range, in his assessment, could prove to be merely a temporary pause before further declines.
Nikolay Dudchenko, an analyst at Finam Group, also points to pressure from the rising dollar. He reminds that at the first Fed meeting under Warsh, the rate was kept in the 3.5-3.75% range, while market participants are confident in another hike before the end of the year. In July, in his opinion, investor attention will be focused on signals regarding the rate trajectory. However, unlike Kutsenko, Dudchenko emphasizes sustained demand: "A price decline will attract investors, and demand for gold could increase even further."
Safe-Haven Demand and Growth Scenarios: The Bullish View
Alexander Ryabinin, a portfolio manager and lecturer at SF Education, views the current decline as a correction with speculators exiting. He points to the complex global situation: inflation could accelerate at any moment, and the stock market, riding an AI bubble, could burst. "Since portfolio protection is needed, the price has returned to a reasonable level and has even become undervalued," the expert explains. In this, Ryabinin agrees with Dudchenko on gold being an attractive asset on the decline, but diverges from Kutsenko, who expects the decline to continue.
Oleg Reshetnikov, an equity market expert at BCS World of Investments, noted that the market will continue to react to the consequences of the Middle East conflict in the coming month. Inflation remains persistent, forcing the Fed to maintain a more hawkish rhetoric, but the reduction in risks surrounding Iran and the US has already triggered a positive reaction from the metal. "We expect stabilization in the $3900-4000 range. Local surges to $4400 are possible," Reshetnikov forecasts.
The forecast levels diverge noticeably. In his base scenario, Dudchenko expects the price to hold above $3800 with a possible move to $4500, while in an alternative scenario, he allows for a decline to $3600. Kutsenko names the lowest target — the $3500 zone.
Conclusions and My Expert Opinion
Experts agree that in the short term, gold remains under pressure from a hawkish Fed and a strong dollar. Beyond that, opinions diverge. Nikita Kutsenko expects a change in the market regime and a decline to $3500, drawing an analogy with 2013. Nikolay Dudchenko, Alexander Ryabinin, and Oleg Reshetnikov interpret the decline more as a correction: Dudchenko and Reshetnikov allow for growth to $4400-4500, while Ryabinin has already moved into a long position, considering the metal undervalued. Key factors for July remain the Fed's signals on the rate trajectory, the dollar's dynamics, and inflation persistence.
My analytical assessment: I lean towards the correction scenario rather than a trend reversal. The fundamental drivers for gold — structural inflation and geopolitical instability — have not disappeared. However, the current macroeconomic picture (hawkish Fed and strong dollar) does create powerful short-term resistance. The most likely outcome appears to be consolidation in the $3800-$4200 range, followed by an upward breakout upon the emergence of new triggers. The $3500 level, in my view, is only possible in a shock scenario, such as a sharp tightening of Fed policy.