Oil in July 2026: The risk premium is gone, but will it return?
After the spring rally, when Brent crude surged above $120 per barrel amid the escalation around the Strait of Hormuz, the black gold market sharply changed its trajectory. The de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East led to a collapse in prices in the second quarter, and now the main question for traders and investors is: is this a sustained decline or a temporary lull before a new surge?
My market analysis shows that the consensus among leading analysts boils down to one thing: oil will not return to its wartime highs in July, but a collapse below $65 is not expected either. The main range for July-August is $65–85 per barrel. However, interpretations of the situation differ dramatically.
De-escalation: A New Normal or a Fragile Truce?
Some experts, including financial manager Nikita Kutsenko, believe that after the easing of geopolitical tensions, oil has simply returned to its "normal" 2021–2025 levels—around $75. They expect calm trading in the $70–85 range in the coming weeks, without significant volatility spikes.
Other analysts, such as Nikolay Dudchenko from Finam, are much more cautious. In his view, the situation is far from normalization. Risks remain high: a mismatch in the minimum demands of the parties and the possibility of renewed conflict with the closure of the strait, especially given Israel's aggressive stance. "Normalizing traffic in the unblocked Strait of Hormuz may take some time," he notes. In Finam's baseline scenario, the price will not return to the levels seen at the start of the year ($60–65) and will stay at an elevated level of $70–80, with growth resuming in the event of escalation.
The most "bullish" position is held by portfolio manager Alexander Ryabinin. He is confident that oil has fallen unjustifiably low: news about the resumption of traffic in the strait and prices returning to pre-war levels does not reflect real data. "If everything had become fine in the strait, countries would be replenishing their reserves, but they are only depleting them, reaching critical points," he emphasizes. Ryabinin himself does not trade oil, but if it drops to $65, he will start adding it to his portfolio.
Where to Find Support: Numbers and Entry Points
In numerical terms, the experts' forecasts are close. The lower boundary of $65–66 appears in Kutsenko's (lower end of the range), Ryabinin's (entry point), and Reshetnikov's (lower boundary of the baseline scenario) projections. The upper boundary for all falls within $80–85. Meanwhile, Dudchenko and Reshetnikov directly tie the preservation of the premium and growth potential to the factor of an unsigned final agreement between Iran and the U.S., while Ryabinin bets on a divergence between the news flow and real data on the strait and reserves.
Conclusions
All four experts agree that in July, oil will remain in the range of roughly $65–85 per barrel, without returning to wartime highs, but also without a collapse. Kutsenko is the most neutral, forecasting calm trading at $70–85. Dudchenko and Reshetnikov agree that the risk premium will persist until a final agreement between the U.S. and Iran is signed, and both allow for new growth in the event of escalation. Ryabinin differs from his colleagues in his interpretation of the current decline, considering it excessive, and sees the $65 level as a buying opportunity.
Analyst's comment: The oil market is currently in a phase of uncertainty, where the geopolitical premium has quickly evaporated, but fundamental risks remain. Investors should prepare for volatility in the $65–85 range, and the key driver will be not so much supply as the news flow surrounding the Middle East. Any new escalation could bring back a premium of $10–15 per barrel.