Moderna shares surged 125% in six months: breakthrough in flu vaccine and new strategy
Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) shares closed trading on Friday, June 26, with a 12% gain. Thus, the stock price of the American biotechnology company has risen by 125.51% over the past six months.
The rise capped a rapid climb from lows near $46 recorded in early June. Several factors are behind this scenario.
FDA Flu Vote Eliminated the Main Risk
About a week and a half ago, on June 18, the FDA's Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee unanimously (9-0) supported a positive assessment of the drug mFLUSIVA (mRNA-1010) for people over 50. Such decisions in the biotech sector are extremely rare.
This significantly reduced regulatory uncertainty ahead of the key decision date for the application on August 5. If approved, mFLUSIVA would become the first seasonal flu drug based on mRNA technology in the United States.
Wall Street Remains Cautious
Piper Sandler raised its price target for MRNA to $77. Jefferies analysts increased their target level to $53, while maintaining a "hold" rating. The median analyst forecast is $43.45 — significantly below MRNA's current quotes.
Most experts recommend holding the asset — 16 such notes have been recorded in the market. Insider transactions are predominantly sell-side: the last 75 operations were sell-offs. Analysts do not expect significant revenue growth from flu vaccine sales before 2027.
Not Just Vaccines
Moderna restructured its business around three areas: vaccines, oncology, and rare diseases. This news lifted quotes by about 6.3%. The stock reached its all-time high during the COVID-19 vaccine production wave in August 2021, when the share price rose to $497.
For instance, on June 25 at the Science Day event, the company presented an expanded development portfolio. Management showcased programs for in vivo CAR-T and T-cell engagers for oncology and autoimmune diseases.
Plans to invest in production in Germany, including sites that BioNTech intends to close, led to an 8–12% rise in MRNA shares over several trading sessions. Market participants viewed this move as a long-term bet on increasing capacity ahead of a surge in new launches in 2027–2028.
Analyst Comment: Moderna's growth is impressive, but I remain cautious. The median forecast of $43.45 suggests the market does not yet fully believe in the commercial success of mFLUSIVA. The main driver now is not so much the vaccine itself, but the diversification of the business into oncology and rare diseases. Investors should watch the FDA decision on August 5: approval would be a powerful catalyst, but the current price already largely factors in this positive scenario.