5 strategies for the portfolio for the second half of the year: from SpaceX to Ethereum
Key trends are forming in global markets that will determine price dynamics over the next six months. Investors should look beyond just cryptocurrency: stocks, gold, and oil also offer interesting opportunities. My analysis of five scenarios from a well-known crypto analyst demonstrates how to structure a diversified strategy for the second half of the year.
Idea 1. SpaceX (SPCX): short with a reversal on indexation
SpaceX shares, trading under the ticker SPCX on Nasdaq, are the first focus. The key catalyst is the company's expected inclusion in a major index starting July 7. This event will force index funds to physically buy the shares, ensuring an inflow of passive capital worth several billion dollars.
The strategy involves closing most of the short position at the open, followed by a reversal into a long position amid the hype. An intermediate profit-taking point is at $165, with a target of $180–190. After that, it's back to a short position ahead of the company's first quarterly report (August 11–14), targeting a pullback to $130–135.
Idea 2. Micron (MU): short after earnings amid the chip war
The second scenario relates to the semiconductor market. It was triggered by reports of a potential rise in Apple device prices due to higher chip costs and rumors of memory purchases in China, which is dumping products. After a strong Micron earnings report, profit-taking and a subsequent sell-off are expected amid this news.
The target is a 10–20% pullback, which is proposed to be executed through futures on a partner exchange. This is a classic example of trading on "buy the rumor, sell the news."
Idea 3. Coca-Cola (KO): defensive long with a dividend focus
The third idea reflects a capital shift from overheated tech sectors to dividend "aristocrats." Coca-Cola is forming an ascending triangle on the chart with resistance around $82. The entry signal is a weekly close above this level.
The target is a 10–14% move, with a phased position build-up and a stop below the triangle zone. This is a defensive asset that should benefit from capital rotation amid uncertainty.
Idea 4. Ethereum (ETH): long following Bitcoin
The fourth idea returns us to the world of cryptocurrencies. A Bitcoin reversal to $67,000–70,000, in my view, will pull Ethereum along with it. The ETH chart shows a "double bottom" pattern with a confirming weekly candle, similar to the one that preceded a more than 20% rally earlier in the month.
The target is a local 10–15% rise, with a stop below the local low. The correlation between BTC and ETH remains high, and this scenario looks like a logical continuation of the first cryptocurrency's bullish momentum.
Idea 5. Gold (XAU/USD): short from a local bounce
The fifth idea focuses on gold, where test positions have already been opened. Two reasons for a decline: the threat of Fed policy tightening with a strengthening dollar and capital flows into bonds. An alternative scenario is a softening of rhetoric, where capital would move into risk assets.
The short entry is planned not from current levels, but from a local bounce, gradually building a position in the $4250–4500 range. The main target is a correction to $3000, with the scenario cancellation level at $4600.
Analyst's comment: The presented scenarios demonstrate a mature approach to capital management, covering both traditional assets (stocks, gold) and cryptocurrencies. However, investors should remember that all forecasts are merely probabilistic models. The key to success is not blindly following ideas, but adapting them to one's own risk tolerance and time horizon.