Attention investors: Kalshi and Polymarket are the main targets for acquisition in the prediction market.
The prediction market is entering a new phase of consolidation. Over the past eight months, major players from the consumer finance and online betting sectors have been actively building their own exchange infrastructure for event contracts. This creates ideal conditions for a wave of mergers and acquisitions, and in my deep analysis, the primary targets here are Kalshi and Polymarket.
Both platforms have a strong technological base and liquidity, but they critically lag behind giants like Robinhood, DraftKings, and Coinbase in terms of access to a mass audience. This makes them more likely sellers than buyers. They have the "hardware," but lack distribution channels, which is a key factor in the battle for users.
Major players are already building their empires
Vertical integration is a trend I am tracking particularly closely. American betting operator DraftKings acquired Railbird and, based on it, launched its own exchange, DKeX, fully integrated into DraftKings Sports & Casino. After the launch, the company moved trading from the CME and Crypto.com infrastructure to its own platform. This player's consumer volume, annualized, is estimated at approximately $3.4 billion.
Online broker Robinhood, together with Susquehanna, created the Rothera exchange and directed FIFA World Cup contracts to it. In 2026, over 16 billion event contracts passed through Robinhood's prediction markets. Coinbase, in turn, acquired The Clearing Company to develop regulated prediction markets as part of its Everything Exchange strategy. The company's annualized revenue from this segment has already reached approximately $100 million.
Why Kalshi and Polymarket are under threat
These two platforms remain among the most recognizable, but their vulnerability is obvious. They have technology and liquidity, but lack the customer base, recognizable brand, and built-in financial or betting products that Robinhood, Coinbase, and DraftKings have. When major players acquire their own exchange infrastructure, external platforms simply become unnecessary. They keep fees, data, and launch new products faster in-house.
For independent players, this means one thing: strategic deals are inevitable. Polymarket, despite its status as one of the most prominent on-chain projects, faces increasing competition from regulated players with mass audiences, narrowing its independent development options.
Prediction markets are gradually converging with sports betting, brokerage apps, and consumer finance. This opens up space for deals that previously seemed unlikely: bookmakers buying exchange infrastructure, exchanges seeking access to audiences, and brokers expanding their product lines. However, as I expected, not all scenarios are equally realistic. For example, the merger of Flutter and DraftKings is described in the report as unlikely, even though such a deal could reduce user acquisition costs.
My conclusion: The prediction market is transitioning from the "Wild West" stage to consolidation under the control of major players. Kalshi and Polymarket are excellent technologies, but without powerful distribution, they risk becoming mere shop windows for acquisition. Investors should closely monitor news about partnerships and M&A in this segment — this is where the core value is currently being formed.