Kalshi and Polymarket: Bernstein analysts predict a wave of acquisitions in the prediction market
The prediction market is undergoing tectonic shifts. Over the past eight months, major players in consumer finance and online betting have actively begun building their own exchange infrastructure for event contracts. In my estimation, based on Bernstein's analytics, this creates ideal conditions for a wave of mergers and acquisitions (M&A), where well-known platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket risk becoming targets rather than buyers.
Analysts led by Ian Moore rightly note: Kalshi and Polymarket have the technological base and liquidity, but they critically lag behind giants like Robinhood, DraftKings, and Coinbase in access to a mass audience. This makes them vulnerable. Instead of capturing the market, they are likely to be absorbed by larger structures.
Vertical Integration: The New Standard
We are already seeing large companies building vertically integrated models. American betting operator DraftKings acquired Railbird in October 2025 and launched its own exchange, DKeX. It then moved trading from CME and Crypto.com infrastructure to its own platform. DraftKings' consumer volume on an annualized basis is estimated at around $3.4 billion — a serious argument.
Online broker Robinhood followed a similar path, creating the Rothera exchange with Susquehanna and directing World Cup contracts to it. Over 16 billion event contracts passed through its prediction markets in 2026. Coinbase, in turn, acquired The Clearing Company to develop regulated prediction markets as part of its Everything Exchange strategy. Its annual revenue from this segment is already reaching about $100 million.
Why Are Kalshi and Polymarket Under Threat?
These platforms remain prominent, but their independence is in question. They have the technology but lack the client base, brand, and integrated products that Robinhood or DraftKings possess. Large players, having acquired their own exchange infrastructure, have less need for external platforms. They can launch products faster and retain fees and data for themselves.
For independent platforms, this increases the likelihood of strategic deals: from selling the business to finding partners with strong distribution channels. Prediction markets are gradually converging with sports betting, brokerage apps, and consumer finance. Bookmakers may buy exchange infrastructure, exchanges may seek audience access, and brokers may expand their product lines with event contracts.
Expert Commentary: In my view, we are on the verge of consolidation that will fundamentally change the landscape of the prediction market. Polymarket, as one of the most prominent on-chain projects, may face a narrowing of independent development options due to the strengthening of regulated competitors. The involvement of Meta, which is rumored to be considering collaboration with Polymarket and Kalshi, only adds to the intrigue. However, time is working against independent players — they must either find a strong partner or become part of a larger ecosystem.