The macroeconomic backdrop undermines the AI bet and complicates the situation for cryptocurrencies.
Fresh macroeconomic data from the United States points to accelerating inflation, which automatically raises the yield on government bonds. In such conditions, markets that have bet on the rapid growth of companies in the artificial intelligence sector find themselves in a zone of heightened vulnerability. This is not just a correction — it is a fundamental change in the risk profile for the entire spectrum of high-tech assets.
For the cryptocurrency sector, the situation becomes particularly challenging. Bitcoin, which many previously viewed as a hedge against the devaluation of fiat currencies, behaves like an extension of the technology sector under the current macroeconomic paradigm. It shows a high correlation with the Nasdaq index and reacts much more sharply to changes in Treasury yields than to inflation expectations.
Triggers of Instability
In addition to the direct pressure from rising yields, three key factors of uncertainty are affecting the market. First, the stance of the Federal Reserve: any tightening of rhetoric or a pause in rate cuts immediately revalues the cost of capital for high-risk assets. Second, the regulatory environment for DeFi remains unclear, which deters institutional investors who could act as a stabilizing force. Third, the inflow of funds into the crypto sector from large funds has slowed, as they are reallocating their portfolios toward more defensive instruments.
My analysis: We are witnessing a classic scenario where macroeconomics overrides narratives. AI and cryptocurrencies are stories about the future, but the market now demands payment for risk here and now. Until inflation begins to decline steadily and yields start to fall, any rallies in these sectors will be speculative and short-term in nature. Investors should prepare for heightened volatility and reconsider their risk management strategies.