Inflationary pressure is shifting the balance of power: betting on AI is becoming risky, and the crypto market is growing more vulnerable.
The macroeconomic picture in the U.S. is once again reshaping the strategies of institutional investors. Deteriorating inflation indicators and the subsequent rise in Treasury bond yields have significantly weakened the positions of those who bet on stocks of companies in the artificial intelligence sector. In such conditions, the high-tech sector's heightened sensitivity to interest rates becomes a critical factor, and many portfolios are skewed toward risk.
Bitcoin is not a safe haven, but an extension of risk appetite
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin's behavior once again confirms its correlation with traditional high-risk assets. Contrary to the "digital gold" narrative, the leading cryptocurrency is currently showing dynamics similar to tech stocks rather than a defensive reaction to inflation. This means that during periods of monetary tightening, BTC does not act as a hedge but, on the contrary, increases portfolio volatility.
The key factors putting pressure on the crypto sector today are uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's next steps, the lack of clear regulatory frameworks for DeFi, and a slowdown in institutional capital inflows. Until the regulator provides clear signals of policy easing, the market will remain in a zone of turbulence.
My analysis: The market overestimated the resilience of AI stocks to macroeconomic shocks. Cryptocurrencies now urgently need to break away from the "risk asset" narrative — otherwise, every new CPI report will trigger sell-offs rather than growth. Investors should prepare for a longer period of consolidation until macroeconomic conditions become more favorable.