70% of Polymarket markets are dead: bots are sucking out profits, not traders
My analysis of data from closed Polymarket markets between 2021 and the end of May 2026 revealed an alarming trend: nearly 70% of all contracts showed a trading volume of less than $10,000. This is not just a statistic—it is a diagnosis of the state of an entire segment of decentralized predictions.
The volume distribution turned out to be catastrophically skewed. Less than 10% of closed markets managed to show a volume ranging from $100,000 to $1 million. Moreover, over 45,000 contracts—almost 5% of the total—recorded no trading volume at all. This indicates that the platform generates a huge amount of "noise," but only a few attract real capital.
Bots—the main beneficiaries of low-liquidity markets
The key finding of my research is the dominance of bots in the low-liquidity segment. Joshua Della Vedova, a business professor at the University of San Diego, determined that more than 80% of the volume in markets with a turnover of up to $10,000 is provided exclusively by algorithmic wallets. According to his estimate, bots earned about $1.2 million on these micro-markets. For comparison: on contracts with a volume from $1 million to $10 million, their profit amounted to $50.5 million, and on markets over $10 million, another $35.1 million.
This confirms my long-standing hypothesis: Polymarket is not so much a platform for retail traders as it is a field for high-frequency algorithms. Bots make money on every trade, favoring large markets but covering the entire spectrum of contracts.
The World Cup exploded volumes, but did not save the situation
The contrast between the overall picture and individual high-profile events is striking. Data from CryptoRank shows that since June 1, trading volume on major platforms related to the 2026 FIFA World Cup soared from $65 million to $5.4 billion on a weekly basis. The peak occurred during the week of June 22 to 28, when the figure reached $5.6 billion. The main contribution came from the Kalshi platform.
However, this explosive growth is merely an exception that proves the rule. The bulk of capital was concentrated in a few popular contracts, while tens of thousands of others are practically not traded.
My expert verdict
Prediction markets are experiencing a paradoxical moment: global events attract enormous volumes, but the fundamental structure of the platforms remains extremely immature. As long as 70% of contracts are dead and bots control the lion's share of liquidity, it is premature to talk about a healthy ecosystem. Investors should closely monitor how platforms will address the problem of "dead" markets and combat the dominance of algorithms.