Rarest signal: 14 out of 17 key BTC metrics indicate a bottom formation
The Bitcoin market is sending a unique analytical signal. 14 out of 17 tracked on-chain indicators have simultaneously entered the "Bottom" phase. This is an extremely rare event, recorded only when there is a complete alignment of fundamental signs of an asset being undervalued.
Which metrics signal a bottom?
Most key fair value models are in the Bottom zone. The adjusted MVRV ratio (market value to realized value) is recorded at 19. The Balanced Price and Delta Price are at 20 and 12, respectively. Historically, a drop below these levels meant the asset was considered undervalued.
The MVRV Z-Score indicator has dropped to 6, which statistically demonstrates a significant deviation of the market price from the average purchase price of all coins (realized price).
Metrics related to participant profitability show extremely low values. The Percentage Supply in Profit and Percentage UTXOs in Profit have fallen to 0. This means the vast majority of coins are near the breakeven zone, which is a classic sign of capitulation.
Also in the bottom phase are: Long-Term Supply MVRV at 10, Realized Price at 19, Long-Term Supply (LTS) Realized Price at 6, Short-Term Supply (STS) at 24, Short-Term Supply MVRV at 15, STS NUPL at 13, and Top Price at 14.
Bearish exceptions and dynamics
Nevertheless, three indicators remain in the bearish phase. These are LTS NUPL (unrealized profit/loss of long-term holders) at 33, Market Cap To Thermocap Ratio at 39, and overall NUPL at 37. NUPL values close to zero indicate a zone where past sell-offs typically exhausted themselves rather than deepened.
The dynamics over the last 30 days for most metrics are negative or neutral, suggesting a gradual slide towards the bottom. The strongest declines over the month were seen in LTS NUPL (down 3 points), NUPL and the Thermocap ratio (down 2 points each). However, some indicators increased: STS rose by 3 points, Short-Term MVRV also by 3, and STS NUPL showed the most notable growth, up by 9 points.
The alignment of 14 out of 17 indicators in the bottom zone is a rare analytical consensus, pointing to a high probability of a price minimum forming. The key question now is whether the remaining bearish metrics will confirm this signal, or if we will see a phase change in them in the coming weeks.
Cryptalist analyst's opinion: Such a concentration of bottom signals is not just a statistical anomaly, but a fundamental wake-up call for the market. When 82% of key metrics simultaneously scream undervaluation, only those who don't look at the charts can ignore it. However, full confidence will only come after the remaining bearish indicators reverse.