Bitcoin under fire: analysts warn of risk of drop to $10,000 amid US stock market reversal
The cryptocurrency market is on the verge of a serious test. Based on my assessments, grounded in a comprehensive analysis of macroeconomic cycles and capital flows, Bitcoin risks becoming the primary victim of a potential reversal in the U.S. stock market. A series of independent observations indicate that BTC could crash to the $10,000 mark if U.S. stocks lose support.
The Century-Long S&P 500 Cycle: Euphoria Before Stagnation
Analysis of long-term trends in the S&P 500 index reveals a recurring pattern: technology booms last about 24–25 years, after which the market enters a decade-long phase of sideways movement. For example, the electronics and automation boom starting in 1942 brought 2,536% growth over 24 years, followed by nine years of stagnation. Similarly, the PC and internet boom beginning in 1975 lasted 25 years and delivered 2,665%, succeeded by a nine-year consolidation period.
The current cycle, which started in 2009 with the era of smartphones, e-commerce, and artificial intelligence, should logically conclude around 2033. This means the bull market still has about seven years left, but the key point is that the steepest growth segments always occur in the final stage. However, history teaches that such markets do not die from "old age" but from euphoria, which inevitably gives way to a crash.
Record Capital Inflow — The Final Warning
At the same time, we are witnessing unprecedented demand for U.S. stocks from global investors. The cumulative inflow from international investment funds since the start of the year has reached about 2.5% of their total assets under management. This figure has more than doubled since May and significantly exceeds the average level for 2002–2025, when this period typically saw an outflow of around 0.3%.
The current pace of inflows has already surpassed the full annual result typical of average values over the past two decades. This suggests that the U.S. stock market is overheated and in a zone of extreme optimism, which often precedes a sharp reversal.
Bitcoin as a Hostage of the Stock Market
Of particular concern is Bitcoin's direct dependence on the performance of U.S. stocks. Analysts emphasize that the stability of all commodity and crypto assets directly depends on whether U.S. securities continue to rise. If the stock market fails to hold at current levels, Bitcoin will likely move closer to $10,000. For context: gold could retreat to $3,000 per ounce, and WTI crude oil could fall below $50 per barrel.
Notably, Bitcoin is already acting as a lagging asset. In the year leading up to July 4, it lost about 40%, while oil remained roughly flat. This demonstrates that the cryptocurrency is weakening even against the backdrop of a strong stock market. According to the logic of the forecast, any reversal in the stock market will hit cryptocurrencies the hardest — and Bitcoin's current underperformance makes it especially vulnerable at the first sign of a shift in sentiment.
My conclusion: The market is at a crossroads. If the stock boom gives way to a correction, Bitcoin will find itself at the epicenter of the storm. Investors should prepare for a deep drawdown and reassess their risks, especially given that the cryptocurrency is already showing weakness relative to traditional assets.