Weekly Recap: Bitcoin recovers to $62,700, MiCA comes into full effect, and the Central Bank of Russia sets a date for crypto regulation
The past week has been a landmark one for the crypto industry on several fronts. Bitcoin, which experienced its worst month in four years, managed to bounce back from local lows and consolidate above $62,000. In Europe, the transitional period of the MiCA regulation came to an end, while in Russia, the Central Bank outlined specific timelines for launching crypto regulation. These events set a new direction for the market, and I see in them both signs of maturity and new challenges.
Bitcoin Recovers Losses: Recovery Amid Macroeconomic Uncertainty
The leading cryptocurrency started the week with a decisive rebound from a nearly two-year low around $57,700. By July 1, the price had surpassed the $60,000 mark, and by Saturday, July 4, it reached $63,300 on Binance. Despite a subsequent correction to $62,700, the weekly gain stood at 4.6%.
Notably, the upward movement began against the backdrop of statements by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh about persistently high inflation in the US. This is a classic scenario where Bitcoin is perceived as a hedge against fiat currency depreciation. However, altcoins showed even more impressive results: Solana gained 12.7%, Ethereum rose 11.7%, and the Hyperliquid token increased by more than 10%.
Nevertheless, outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs continued for the eighth consecutive week, totaling $526.6 million. Interestingly, on July 2, the products attracted $221.7 million in a single session, indicating mixed sentiment among institutional investors. Ethereum-based funds also lost $13.7 million over the week.
The Fear and Greed Index remains in the extreme fear zone, rising only from 18 to 23 points. The total market capitalization recovered from $2.07 trillion to $2.17 trillion, with Bitcoin's dominance decreasing from 58.1% to 57.9%, while Ethereum's share jumped from 9.2% to 9.8%. This suggests a flow of liquidity toward altcoins.
MiCA: Europe Closes the Transitional Period
July 1, 2026, is a historic date for the crypto industry in the European Union. The transitional period for crypto platforms under the MiCA regulation has expired. Companies that have not obtained a license are now required to cease servicing European clients. According to ESMA, by the end of the period, there were 244 authorized crypto service providers in the EU and EEA, including Kraken, Coinbase, and Bitstamp.
This is an important step toward legalization and standardization of the market, but it also creates barriers to entry. The European Commission has already begun reviewing the regulation, launching public consultations. MiCA is a living document, and its adaptation to the rapidly changing market will be key to maintaining the competitiveness of the European crypto industry.
Russia: Central Bank Sets Date for Crypto Regulation Launch
This week, First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of Russia Vladimir Chistyukhin stated that the law on regulating the crypto market could come into force on September 1. After that, market participants will be given time to prepare until July 1, 2027, when administrative and criminal liability for illegal operations will take effect.
The first operations under the new regime are expected by the end of this year or the beginning of next. This is an ambitious but realistic plan. However, the question remains: how effectively will the licensing system work, and will it be able to protect investors without stifling innovation?
Other Events of the Week: From Ethereum Institutional to Quantum Protection
In the Ethereum ecosystem, an independent non-profit organization, Ethereum Institutional, has been launched to promote the network among banks and asset managers. This is another step toward the institutionalization of the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap.
StarkWare presented a roadmap for protecting StarkNet from quantum threats, highlighting the growing importance of post-quantum cryptography. In Russia, the Ministry of Digital Development will become the sole regulator of AI, and Strategy's valuation fell below the value of its Bitcoin reserves for the first time—a worrying signal for the market.
My view: The market is in a consolidation phase, and the key driver of growth remains the macroeconomic environment. However, regulatory changes in the EU and Russia are creating long-term fundamental foundations. Bitcoin is likely to trade in the $60,000-$65,000 range in the coming weeks as investors assess the implications of MiCA and prepare for the autumn launch of Russian crypto regulation.