Massive coincidence of on-chain signals: 14 out of 17 indicators point to the formation of a Bitcoin bottom
The Bitcoin market is exhibiting a rare phenomenon: 14 out of 17 key on-chain indicators are simultaneously in the "bottom" phase. This is not just a broad correlation, but an extraordinary level of analytical consensus that historically precedes the formation of price lows. Such a pattern only emerges when fundamental metrics fully align, signaling an extreme degree of asset undervaluation.
Which Metrics Confirm the Bottom?
Fundamental indicators such as the adjusted MVRV ratio (value 19), balanced price (20), and delta price (12) are in the "Bottom" phase. These fair value models historically point to zones where the asset is considered undervalued. The MVRV Z-Score has dropped to 6, demonstrating a statistically significant deviation of the market price from the average acquisition price of all coins on the network.
Particularly noteworthy are the extremely low values of the Percentage Supply in Profit and the Percentage UTXO in Profit—both indicators have fallen to 0. This means that virtually the entire circulating supply of Bitcoin is near the breakeven zone, a classic sign of seller exhaustion.
Bearish Metrics and Monthly Dynamics
Despite the overwhelming majority of bottom signals, three indicators remain in the bearish phase: LTS NUPL (33), the capitalization-to-thermocap ratio (39), and the overall NUPL (37). The latter reflects whether the market as a whole is in profit or loss. Values close to zero indicate a zone where previous sell-offs typically exhausted themselves rather than deepened.
The 30-day dynamics for most metrics are negative or neutral, confirming a gradual drift toward the bottom. The strongest decline was shown by LTS NUPL (down 3 points), as well as NUPL and the thermocap ratio (down 2 points each). However, some indicators rose instead: the realized price of short-term supply (STS) increased by 3 points, and STS NUPL showed the most notable growth—up 9 points. This suggests that short-term holders are beginning to lock in losses, often preceding a trend reversal.
My expert opinion: The coincidence of 14 out of 17 indicators in the bottom zone is not a coincidence but a powerful fundamental signal. However, full confirmation of a reversal will only come when the remaining bearish metrics, especially NUPL, begin to turn upward. The market is currently at a critical point: either we will see a final capitulation, or a phase of accumulation will begin, preceding a new bullish cycle. Investors should closely monitor the dynamics of LTS NUPL—this indicator often provides a lagging but most reliable signal.