Bitcoin under fire: analysts warn of risk of drop to $10,000 amid US stock market reversal
The digital asset market is entering a zone of heightened turbulence. My analysis of recent data indicates that Bitcoin could become the primary victim of a potential reversal in the U.S. stock market. This conclusion is drawn from observations made by several independent analysts, whose forecasts paint a troubling picture.
The Century-Long Stock Market Cycle: The Final Phase?
One of the leading researchers of long-term market cycles has pointed to a recurring pattern in the S&P 500 index over the past hundred years. According to his data, each technology boom lasts about 24–25 years, followed by a decade of stagnation. The current cycle, which began in 2009 with the era of smartphones and e-commerce, is now being fueled by artificial intelligence. By this logic, the bull market could extend until roughly 2033, but its most aggressive phase typically occurs at the end. The key risk I see is that such markets don't "die" of old age, but of euphoria—overheating that can trigger a sharp sell-off.
Record Capital Inflows: The Last Surge Before a Downturn?
Alongside this, data shows unprecedented demand for U.S. stocks from global investors. Cumulative inflows into investment funds since the start of the year have reached about 2.5% of their total assets under management. This figure has more than doubled since May and significantly exceeds the historical average for 2002–2025, a period that typically saw outflows. Such a concentration of capital is a classic sign of a late-cycle stage, when investors make a final entry into an overheated asset, leaving the market extremely vulnerable to any negative trigger.
Bitcoin as a "Hostage" of the Stock Market
The most alarming signal comes from an analysis of Bitcoin's correlation with the stock market. The expert emphasizes that the stability of all commodity and crypto assets directly depends on the continued growth of U.S. securities. If the stock market fails to hold, Bitcoin will likely find itself near the $10,000 mark. For comparison, gold in such a scenario could retreat to $3,000 per ounce, and WTI crude oil could fall below $50 per barrel.
Notably, over the past year, Bitcoin has already acted as a lagging asset. While the S&P 500, gold, and copper have shown total returns of around 21–25%, the leading cryptocurrency has lost roughly 40% of its value. This suggests that even against the backdrop of a strong stock market, the cryptocurrency is weakening, and at the first signs of a shift in sentiment, it becomes the most vulnerable.
My opinion: The current picture resembles the setup for a perfect storm. Record capital inflows into U.S. stocks and the century-long cycle indicate that we are in a late, euphoric phase. Bitcoin, which is already showing weakness, risks facing double pressure: on one hand, a correction in the stock market, and on the other, a loss of confidence from investors disappointed by its performance. The $10,000 level is not just a technical target, but a realistic scenario in the event of a "bearish" reversal in traditional markets.