Anomalous convergence: 14 out of 17 on-chain metrics signal the formation of a bitcoin bottom
The Bitcoin market has entered a phase that can be described as statistically rare. My analysis of a panel of 17 key on-chain indicators shows that 14 of them are simultaneously in the "Bottom" zone. This degree of signal convergence is an extraordinary phenomenon. Such a coincidence is typically observed only at moments of a complete cyclical reversal, when the bearish trend exhausts itself and the market is ready for a change in direction.
Fundamental metrics currently in the bottom phase include the adjusted MVRV ratio (value 19), the balanced price (20), and the delta price (12). The last two fair value models historically point to zones of deep asset undervaluation. The MVRV Z-Score has dropped to 6, which statistically demonstrates a significant deviation of the market price from the average acquisition price of all coins in the network.
Particular attention should be paid to the extreme values of the Percentage Supply in Profit and the Percentage UTXO in Profit. Both indicators have fallen to zero. This suggests that the vast majority of holders are at breakeven or in a slight loss—a classic sign of capitulation and market cleansing of weak hands.
However, not all metrics have reached the bottom. Three indicators are still in the bearish phase: LTS NUPL (33), the capitalization-to-thermocap ratio (39), and the overall NUPL (37). The latter, reflecting the total unrealized profit or loss of the market, shows that we have not yet entered the zone of full capitulation, although we are approaching it.
The dynamics over the last 30 days confirm a gradual slide toward the bottom. The largest decline was shown by LTS NUPL (minus 3 points), as well as NUPL and the capitalization-to-thermocap ratio (minus 2 points each). Notably, short-term metrics, on the contrary, are showing growth: STS NUPL gained 9 points, which may indicate the first signs of accumulation by speculative capital.
My conclusion: The current convergence of 14 out of 17 indicators is a powerful bullish signal that cannot be ignored. It indicates that the market is in the final stage of the bearish cycle. The remaining three bearish metrics will likely also transition into the bottom phase in the coming weeks, which will serve as final confirmation of the reversal. For long-term investors, current levels appear to be one of the best entry points in recent years.