Bitcoin under threat: analysts warn of risk of drop to $10,000 amid US stock market correction
Leading market analysts agree that Bitcoin could be the main victim of a potential reversal in the U.S. stock market. Although each expert views the situation from their own perspective, their conclusions form a troubling chain: from the secular cycle of the stock market through record capital inflows into U.S. equities to the direct dependence of the first cryptocurrency's price on their dynamics. The overall picture is this: the U.S. securities market is in a late but not yet final growth phase, and BTC risks becoming a hostage to this movement.
Secular Cycle of the Stock Market
Long-term analysis of the S&P 500 index reveals a recurring century-long pattern: technology booms last about 24–25 years, followed by a decade of stagnation. Historical examples are telling: the electronics and automation boom starting in 1942 lasted 24 years with a gain of 2536%, after which came nine years of sideways movement. The PC and internet boom from 1975 lasted 25 years with a return of 2665%, again followed by nine years of stagnation. The current cycle, which began in 2009 with the era of smartphones, e-commerce, and now artificial intelligence, by this logic will end around 2033. Estimates suggest the bull market has about seven years left, but the steepest part of the growth always comes at the end, and such markets die not from old age, but from euphoria.
Record Capital Inflows into U.S. Stocks
At the same time, unprecedented demand for U.S. stocks from global investors is being recorded. The cumulative inflow from global investment funds since the start of the year has reached about 2.5% of their total assets under management. This figure has more than doubled since May and significantly exceeds the average level for 2002–2025, when an outflow of about 0.3% was recorded at this date. The current rate of inflow has already surpassed the full annual result typical for the median half of years since 2002. Demand for U.S. stocks is truly unprecedented.
Bitcoin as a Hostage to the Stock Market
The key conclusion drawn by experts is the direct dependence of the stability of all commodity and crypto assets on the continued growth of U.S. securities. If the stock market does not hold above current levels, Bitcoin will likely be closer to $10,000, gold will retreat to $3,000 per ounce, and WTI oil will fall below $50 per barrel. Notably, over the past year, the total return of the S&P 500, gold, and copper has risen by about 21–25%, while Bitcoin has lost about 40%. This shows that the cryptocurrency is weakening even against the backdrop of a strong stock market.
Comparing these observations, a general logic for Bitcoin emerges. Provided that the described cycle has entered a late euphoric phase, and record capital inflows into stocks support growth, in the short term Bitcoin can move upward in tandem with stocks. However, following the logic of the forecast, any reversal in the stock market will hit the cryptocurrency the hardest—Bitcoin's current underperformance makes it particularly vulnerable at the first sign of a change in sentiment.
Expert Opinion: The market is at a dangerous point. On one hand, we see a classic late stage of a bull cycle with record inflows and euphoria. On the other, Bitcoin is showing anomalous weakness, losing ground even in a rising market. This is a classic divergence signal that often precedes sharp reversals. Investors should be extremely cautious: the current correlation of BTC with the stock market makes it a highly vulnerable asset, and in the event of an S&P 500 correction, the decline could be deep and swift.