Massive coincidence of on-chain metrics: 14 out of 17 indicators signal the formation of a bitcoin bottom
The Bitcoin market is sending a rare and powerful analytical signal. According to my data, 14 out of 17 key on-chain indicators have simultaneously entered the "Bottom" phase. This is not just a broad convergence of metrics, but a unique alignment that, in my experience, only occurs when there is a complete confluence of fundamental factors pointing to an asset being undervalued.
Which metrics have reached the bottom?
Currently in the Bottom zone is the adjusted MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio with a value of 19. It compares Bitcoin's current market price to the average price of all coins at their last movement on the network. Alongside it is the Balanced Price at level 20 and the Delta Price at level 12. These fair value models historically indicate the zone where the asset is considered undervalued.
The MVRV Z-Score indicator has dropped to the 6 mark. This indicator statistically demonstrates how far the market has deviated from the base valuation (the average purchase price of all coins). The lower the value, the closer we are to a turning point.
Particular attention should be paid to the extremely low values of the Percentage Supply in Profit and Percentage UTXOs in Profit, which have fallen to zero. This means that the vast majority of coins are near the breakeven zone or at a slight loss — a classic sign of seller exhaustion.
Also in the bottom phase are: Long-Term Supply MVRV at 10, the base MVRV ratio at 19, and the Realized Price at 19. The latter indicator reflects the average purchase price of all coins on the network. Completing the picture are price benchmarks such as the realized price for long-term supply (LTS) at 6, for short-term supply (STS) at 24, short-term MVRV at 15, STS NUPL at 13, and the Top Price model at 14.
Bearish signals and monthly dynamics
Nevertheless, three of the 17 indicators remain in the Bearish phase. These are LTS NUPL (unrealized profit/loss for long-term holders) with a value of 33, the Market Cap to Thermocap Ratio at 39, and the overall NUPL at 37. NUPL values close to zero typically indicate a zone where past sell-offs have exhausted themselves. However, current levels are still above the critical threshold, suggesting ongoing pressure.
The 30-day dynamics for most metrics are negative or neutral, confirming a gradual slide towards the bottom. The most significant declines over the month were seen in LTS NUPL (down 3 points), as well as NUPL and the Thermocap ratio (each down 2 points). At the same time, some indicators have risen: the realized price for short-term supply (STS) and short-term MVRV each gained 3 points, while STS NUPL showed the most notable increase — up 9 points. This points to the beginning of accumulation by short-term speculators.
My expert assessment: The coincidence of 14 out of 17 indicators in the bottom zone is an event that, in my memory, has only occurred a few times. This is a powerful bullish signal, indicating that the market is as close as possible to forming a price bottom. However, full confirmation will only come when the remaining three bearish metrics (especially NUPL) begin to reverse. Now is the time for close monitoring of on-chain data — they provide the most objective picture of what is happening.